ISLAMABAD/BELA NOOR SHAH, Pakistan — On Monday (May 5), Pakistan conducted its second missile test in just three days, while India instructed several of its states to carry out security drills amid rising tensions between the two nuclear-armed neighbors following a deadly attack in Kashmir. Moody’s has warned that this standoff could hinder Pakistan’s ongoing economic recovery, even as global powers appealed for de-escalation.

Bilateral relations have sharply deteriorated after an April 22 attack in Indian-administered Kashmir killed 26 Hindu tourists — the deadliest civilian assault in India in nearly 20 years. India has blamed Pakistan for involvement in the attack, an allegation Islamabad has denied, instead claiming it has intelligence suggesting India may soon launch a military strike.

In response, both nations have closed their land borders, halted trade, and suspended airline access to each other's airspace. There have also been minor exchanges of gunfire along the Kashmir frontier. India’s interior ministry has reportedly ordered several states to hold mock security drills on May 7 to assess civil readiness. These exercises will include air raid sirens, evacuation protocols, and emergency response training. The specific states were not named, nor was any official mention of Pakistan or Kashmir made in this context.

Meanwhile, Pakistan’s military announced it had successfully tested a Fatah series surface-to-surface missile with a 120 km range, shortly after a prior test of the Abdali missile with a 450 km range. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif praised the tests as evidence of Pakistan’s strong defense capabilities. Information Minister Attaullah Tarar confirmed that no communication channels were currently open with India.

Kashmir remains a long-standing flashpoint between the two countries, both of which claim it entirely but control separate portions. India accuses Pakistan of backing Islamist militants in the region, while Pakistan asserts its support is limited to diplomatic and moral advocacy for Kashmiri self-determination. On the economic front, Moody’s cautioned that prolonged conflict could derail Pakistan’s $350 billion economy, especially after it narrowly avoided default last year with a $7 billion IMF bailout. The agency noted that escalating tensions could hinder Pakistan’s access to international funding and erode its foreign currency reserves.

The situation may also influence India’s economy, although its limited financial ties with Pakistan mean only an increase in defense spending could potentially slow India’s fiscal progress. In diplomatic moves, Iran’s foreign minister was in Pakistan for talks and is scheduled to visit India next. Russia expressed serious concern over the unfolding crisis and reiterated its valued relationships with both countries. Russian President Vladimir Putin also condemned the Kashmir attack and conveyed full support to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in countering terrorism. Finally, Pakistan announced it would formally brief the United Nations Security Council about the situation and urge it to take steps to maintain international peace and stability.
Disclaimer: This image is taken from Reuters.

ISLAMABAD/NEW DELHI — Since the nuclear-armed neighbors clashed in 2019, India and Pakistan have significantly enhanced their military capabilities, which experts and former military officials warn increases the risks of escalation, even in a limited conflict. Pakistan has accused India of planning a military strike after New Delhi blamed Islamabad for a deadly attack on Indian tourists in Kashmir last month. In response, India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi has vowed severe retaliation against those responsible for the attack. Pakistan, however, denies involvement and has warned of retaliation if targeted.

In 2019, following a bombing of an Indian military convoy in Kashmir, India launched air strikes inside Pakistan, claiming to have destroyed "terrorist camps." Pakistan responded by shooting down an Indian aircraft in a two-day conflict. The two countries have fought three wars — in 1948, 1965, and 1971 — primarily over Kashmir, which both nations claim. Both India and Pakistan developed nuclear weapons in the 1990s, and Kashmir remains one of the world's most dangerous flashpoints.

Military experts caution that while neither side would likely resort to nuclear weapons unless absolutely necessary, even a limited conflict could rapidly escalate. Such a conflict would likely involve aircraft, missiles, or drones, with both countries being relatively evenly matched in these areas, although India’s significantly larger resources would come into play over time.

Frank O'Donnell, a non-resident fellow at the Stimson Center, believes both nations have become more willing to escalate conflicts since 2019, as they managed to engage in combat without resorting to nuclear weapons. However, the lack of clarity about the triggers for escalation could lead to unintended consequences. Since 2019, both countries have acquired new military equipment, which enhances their conventional strike capabilities. "Each side believes they are better positioned than before," said Muhammad Faisal, a South Asia security researcher. "Only actual combat will reveal the true picture."

India, which felt at a disadvantage in 2019 due to reliance on aging Russian jets, has since added 36 French-made Rafale fighter jets to its fleet, with more on order for its navy. In response, Pakistan has obtained the Chinese-made J-10 fighter jets, similar to the Rafale, with at least 20 of these planes in service since 2022. Both aircraft are equipped with advanced air-to-air missiles, with the Rafale using the Meteor missile and the J-10 utilizing the PL-15 missile, according to a Pakistani security official.
Disclaimer: This image is taken from Reuters.

HONG KONG - Hong Kong's national security police have arrested the father and brother of wanted activist Anna Kwok, accusing them of handling her finances, according to local media reports on Friday (May 2). This marks the first time the city's security law has been used to target the relatives of an absconder.

Kwok, the executive director of the Washington-based Hong Kong Democracy Council, is one of 19 overseas activists sought by Hong Kong's national security police. She faces allegations of colluding with foreign powers, and the police have offered a HK$1 million (S$167 million) reward for her capture. Hong Kong's national security law has faced criticism from human rights organizations and several democratic nations, claiming it undermines freedoms and suppresses dissent in the region. The United States has also condemned the harassment of the families of pro-democracy activists living abroad.

The police reported that they arrested two men, aged 35 and 68, on April 30, on suspicion of managing "funds or other financial assets" related to Kwok. According to unnamed sources, these men are Kwok's father and brother. A charge sheet reviewed by Reuters shows that Kwok Yin-sang, the 68-year-old father, was formally charged under the security law on Friday morning for attempting to manage Kwok's finances, including her life and personal accident insurance policy, which could be used to access funds.

Local media reported that he was denied bail by national security judge Victor So at the West Kowloon Magistrates' Courts, while the younger man was released on bail pending further investigation. The case has been postponed until June 13. Kwok's relatives' lawyer could not be reached for comment. The police have warned that handling the finances of an absconder is a serious crime, with a maximum sentence of seven years in prison. Chinese and Hong Kong authorities maintain that the security law has restored stability, which is essential for preserving Hong Kong's economic prosperity.
Disclaimer: This image is taken from Reuters.

The Indus Water Treaty (IWT) of 1960, brokered by the World Bank, has long stood as a symbol of cooperation between India and Pakistan, aimed at peacefully managing the vital water resources of the Indus River system. While this treaty has served its purpose for decades in ensuring both nations had equitable access to water, the recent Pahalgam attack has brought to light new complexities in this relationship, compelling India to reconsider the sustainability of the treaty under current circumstances.

The growing dependence of Pakistan on the waters of the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab rivers each originating from India has increasingly strained Pakistan's water security. India’s strategic management of water resources through projects like Kishanganga and Baglihar has allowed India greater control over the flow of water into Pakistan. These projects not only allow India to regulate the release of water, but they also provide India with leverage in a region where water is a critical factor for both agricultural and economic stability. Given the current state of geopolitical tensions, such as the aftermath of the Pahalgam attack, India’s right to regulate its water resources has come under sharper focus.

India’s decision to break the Indus Water Treaty has been bolstered by the recognition that the treaty no longer fully reflects the evolving geopolitical and environmental realities of the region. The construction of dams by India has allowed for more effective water management, which is crucial for national security and regional stability. The reduction in water flow to Pakistan, resulting from these developments, has direct implications for Pakistan’s agriculture, which consumes around 90% of the country's water. As India continues to expand its water infrastructure, it is in a stronger position to control water distribution, further ensuring its own water security while minimizing Pakistan's access to these critical resources.

Pakistan’s vulnerabilities exacerbated by its growing population and rapid urbanization have highlighted its inability to invest in necessary water infrastructure, such as the Kalabagh Dam, which could mitigate water scarcity. Meanwhile, India’s superior water management infrastructure has positioned it as the dominant player in the region. The imbalance in infrastructure development, coupled with the increasing threat of water scarcity, has left Pakistan increasingly dependent on India for its water needs, contributing to internal tensions and heightening geopolitical risks. As India seeks to safeguard its national interests, including its water security, the Indus Water Treaty may no longer provide the same guarantees for Pakistan’s future access to water.

Disclaimer: This image is taken from Reuters. 

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that Gaza's population will be relocated to the south following the approval of an expanded military operation by his security cabinet, which a minister referred to as a plan to "conquer" the region. How significant a setback could this be for any potential ceasefire? Susan Ng and Hairianto Diman discuss this with Dr. Simon Frankel Pratt, Senior Lecturer in Political Science at The University of Melbourne, to explore the issue.
Disclaimer: This Podcast is taken from CNA.

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Disclaimer: This Podcast is taken from CNA.

Hartley Muze is a true-blue Singaporean, though he occasionally faces questions that many of his fellow citizens don't encounter. His parents migrated from Tanzania in 1990 and later became Singaporean citizens. Born and raised in Singapore, Hartley experienced all the milestones typical of Singaporean men. Notably, he became the first person of African descent in the country to qualify for the prestigious Naval Diving Unit during his national service. Through his unique journey, Hartley has come to appreciate the importance of cultural adaptability, patience, humor, and the strength of Singapore’s multicultural society.
Disclaimer: This Podcast is taken from CNA.

China has cautioned that it will retaliate against countries that align with the U.S. in ways that undermine Beijing's interests, as the escalating trade war between the world's two largest economies risks involving other nations. President Donald Trump has slapped tariffs as high as 145% on Chinese imports, prompting China to respond with its own tariffs of up to 125% on U.S. goods. Andrea Heng and Hairianto Diman explore China's potential strategies amid the ongoing trade tensions, joined by Louise Loo, Lead Economist for China at Oxford Economics.
Disclaimer: This Podcast is taken from CNA.