A tanker transporting Russian crude oil to India has unexpectedly reversed direction and is now stationary in the Baltic Sea, hinting at possible interruptions in oil trade between India and Russia following tighter U.S. sanctions on Moscow. According to ship-tracking data, the vessel — named Furia — was traveling west through the strait separating Denmark and Germany before making a U-turn on Tuesday. It then proceeded only a short distance before slowing almost to a stop. The Aframax-class tanker is reportedly hauling a shipment supplied by Rosneft PJSC, data provider Kpler noted.

This turnaround near the Fehmarn Belt comes shortly after the U.S. imposed sanctions on Rosneft and fellow Russian energy giant Lukoil PJSC. The U.S. Treasury has instructed that dealings with these companies must end by November 21. The restrictions put at risk a key, lower-cost source of crude oil for India’s refineries. Senior officials at major Indian processors told Bloomberg they anticipate a sharp drop in Russian oil imports as a consequence.

The Furia loaded nearly 730,000 barrels of Urals-grade crude at the Russian port of Primorsk on Oct. 20, according to data from Kpler and Vortexa. Initially, the ship listed Sikka — a port in Gujarat that supplies Reliance Industries Ltd. and Bharat Petroleum Corp. Ltd. — as its destination, with arrival planned for mid-November. The vessel later updated its itinerary, pointing instead to Port Said in Egypt for mid-next month. Tankers heading to India via the Suez Canal often label Port Said as a temporary waypoint before updating their final destination after clearing the canal.

Reliance, which has a long-term supply contract with Rosneft for Urals crude, recently emphasized that it will adhere to sanction requirements and has been observed shifting toward Middle Eastern supplies. Indian state-controlled refiners are also becoming more cautious about purchasing oil linked to companies targeted by U.S. sanctions. Indian refineries typically purchase crude on a delivered basis — meaning ownership transfers only upon offloading at the destination port. Requests for comments sent to Reliance and BPCL have not yet been answered.

Meanwhile, some European nations — including Denmark — have increased scrutiny of tankers to prevent shipments of Russian oil from moving through their territorial waters. Denmark recently announced it will focus inspections on older vessels, which frequently make up Russia’s so-called shadow fleet.
Disclaimer: This image is taken from Bloomberg.

China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) signed an upgraded version of their free trade agreement on Tuesday (Oct 28), adding new provisions covering digital trade, green industries and other emerging sectors, according to China’s Commerce Ministry. ASEAN, which includes 11 member states, remains China’s largest trading partner, with bilateral commerce worth US$771 billion (S$997 billion) last year. With the region’s combined GDP standing at around US$3.8 trillion, Beijing is looking to deepen economic ties to help counter the high U.S. tariffs introduced under President Donald Trump.

China’s Commerce Ministry said the newly enhanced pact demonstrates both sides’ strong commitment to multilateralism and free trade. China has been positioning itself as increasingly open to global markets, even as other major economies raise concerns about its growing export restrictions on rare earths and other strategic minerals.

The updated agreement — referred to as Version 3.0 — was signed during a leaders’ summit in Malaysia attended by Trump at the start of his Asia tour. Talks for the upgrade started in November 2022 and concluded in May this year, shortly after the United States intensified its tariff measures. The original free trade deal took effect in 2010.

Beijing has previously noted that the latest upgrade will boost market opportunities in fields including agriculture, digital services, and pharmaceuticals. Both China and ASEAN are also members of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), the world’s largest trade alliance, encompassing nearly a third of the global population and about 30 per cent of global GDP. Kuala Lumpur hosted an RCEP summit on Monday — the first in five years. Analysts suggest the trade bloc could help cushion the impact of U.S. tariffs, though some say its rules are less stringent than those of other regional agreements due to differing priorities among members.

China and the U.S. have been locked in a growing trade confrontation since Trump took office in January, imposing steep tariffs on Chinese imports. Beijing has criticized these measures as protectionist, while itself tightening control over key mineral exports. As more than 90 per cent of the world’s rare earths are processed in China, these moves have drawn international scrutiny.

Negotiators from both nations recently extended a temporary trade truce during discussions in Kuala Lumpur, with Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping expected to finalize next steps when they meet in Seoul later this week. After Trump left Malaysia, China renewed calls for deeper regional economic cooperation, emphasizing the need to keep trade channels open. Speaking at the East Asia Summit, Chinese Premier Li Qiang warned against a return to “the law of the jungle,” urging stronger support for free trade, higher-standard economic partnerships, and continued momentum toward regional integration.
Disclaimer: This image is taken from Reuters.

India and the United States are on the verge of finalizing a trade deal, with both sides now beginning work on drafting the legal text. According to a senior government official, the latest round of discussions in Washington showed convergence on most issues, suggesting that the long-pending agreement could be concluded soon, although it will still require final political approval.

The official noted that the two sides are very close to a deal, with few differences remaining, and that discussions have progressed well, with common ground found on most outstanding matters. However, some issues, particularly those related to non-tariff barriers, remain unresolved. The US has expressed concerns about India’s Quality Control Orders, which it views as obstacles for American exporters.

At present, teams from both countries are engaged in virtual discussions, while the schedule for the next round of in-person talks has yet to be decided. Last week, a team of Indian commerce officials, including Commerce Secretary Rajesh Agrawal, visited Washington to push for an early conclusion of the proposed agreement. The talks concluded late last week, and the delegation returned over the weekend.

Despite the progress, a final deal was not reached. Speculation had arisen that Prime Minister Narendra Modi and US President Donald Trump might hold a bilateral meeting at the 47th ASEAN Summit to announce the agreement, but Modi later confirmed he would attend the summit virtually, ruling out any in-person meeting with Trump. As previously announced by Modi and Trump in February, the deadline for the first phase of the Bilateral Trade Agreement continues to remain set for the fall of 2025.
Disclaimer: This image is taken from Times of india.

Deloitte India on Thursday estimated that the Indian economy will grow between 6.7% and 6.9% in FY26, supported by strong domestic demand and ongoing policy reforms. The economy expanded 7.8% in the April–June quarter, reflecting continued resilience and momentum. According to Deloitte India’s India Economic Outlook report, the country’s GDP is projected to grow by an average of 6.8% this fiscal, marking an upward revision of 0.3 percentage points from its previous forecast. The report highlights that India’s growth trajectory demonstrates both stability and strength, outpacing many other economies. A similar pace is expected in the following year, though uncertainties surrounding global trade and investment could influence the outcome.

The forecast aligns with the Reserve Bank of India’s projection of 6.8% growth for FY26. Deloitte noted that expansion will likely be driven by robust domestic consumption, supportive monetary policy, and structural reforms such as GST 2.0. Additionally, low inflation is expected to enhance consumer spending power. Deloitte India economist Rumki Majumdar observed that the festive quarter will likely see a surge in consumption spending, followed by stronger private investment as businesses adapt to growing demand. She added that a potential trade deal with the US and EU by year-end could further boost investor confidence.

However, Deloitte cautioned that growth remains susceptible to global challenges, including escalating trade tensions and potential delays in trade agreements with major partners like the US. Other risks include restricted access to key minerals and rising inflation in Western economies, which could spill over into India.

Majumdar also pointed out that while headline inflation has eased due to lower food and fuel prices, core inflation remains persistently above 4% since February, limiting the RBI’s room to cut rates. If the US Federal Reserve maintains high interest rates for longer, it could tighten global liquidity and trigger capital outflows from emerging markets, including India. Deloitte emphasized that while recent policies have strengthened domestic demand, the next major step should focus on empowering the MSME sector, which plays a vital role in employment, income generation, exports, and investment.
Disclaimer: This image is taken from Bloomberg.

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Disclaimer: This podcast is taken from CNA.

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Disclaimer: This Podcast is taken from CNA.