India’s overall trade deficit, covering both merchandise and services, widened by 31.5 per cent year-on-year to USD 15.03 billion in July 2026, according to data released by the Commerce Ministry. The increase came as imports grew at a faster pace than exports during the month. India’s combined exports of goods and services rose to USD 80.14 billion in July 2026, compared with USD 70.72 billion in July 2025, marking a growth of around 13.3 per cent. Imports, however, increased more sharply by 15.8 per cent to USD 95.16 billion from USD 82.16 billion a year earlier. As a result, the overall trade deficit increased from USD 11.43 billion in July 2025 to USD 15.03 billion this year.

Merchandise exports provided a major boost to India’s export performance. Goods shipments rose 19.63 per cent to USD 44.24 billion in July, compared with USD 36.98 billion in the same month last year. The Commerce Ministry said the figure represented India’s highest-ever merchandise export value for July, surpassing the previous record of USD 38.34 billion set in July 2022.

At the same time, merchandise imports climbed 17.52 per cent to USD 76.22 billion from USD 64.86 billion in July 2025. Services exports were estimated at USD 35.89 billion, up from USD 33.74 billion, while services imports increased to USD 18.94 billion from USD 17.30 billion. During April-July 2026-27, India’s total exports grew 13.16 per cent to USD 316.42 billion, compared with USD 279.63 billion in the corresponding period last year. Overall imports rose 17.28 per cent to USD 365.85 billion from USD 311.94 billion. Consequently, the cumulative trade deficit widened to USD 49.43 billion from USD 32.32 billion, an increase of 52.97 per cent.

Merchandise exports during the four-month period rose 17.04 per cent to USD 173.78 billion, while merchandise imports increased 19.27 per cent to USD 292.38 billion. Exports to China also recorded strong growth, reaching USD 7.78 billion from USD 5.72 billion, while shipments to the US edged higher to USD 34.49 billion from USD 33.48 billion.
Disclaimer: This image is taken from ANI.

The Mines and Minerals (Development and Regulation) Amendment Bill, 2026, introduced in the Lok Sabha on Monday, proposes major changes to the way mineral resources and mineral-bearing land are regulated in India. The proposed legislation seeks to expand the role of the central government in regulating land containing minerals while placing restrictions on the ability of states to impose certain taxes, cesses and other mining-related levies. The proposed changes could have a significant impact on state revenues, mining companies and India's efforts to increase domestic production of strategically important minerals.

The Mines and Minerals (Development and Regulation) Act, 1957, is the country's primary legal framework for regulating the development, conservation and extraction of minerals. Under the existing system, the Union government has regulatory authority over mines and mineral development, while state governments retain important responsibilities, including the grant of mining leases and the collection of certain taxes and levies associated with mining.

The 2026 amendment Bill proposes to alter part of this existing arrangement by bringing mineral-bearing land more directly under the regulatory control of the Centre. The proposed legislation states that the Union government would assume control over the regulation of land containing minerals based on parameters that would be prescribed by the central government under the MMDR framework. This would be in addition to the existing provision under which the Union exercises control over the regulation of mines and mineral development.

The proposal is significant because the existing legal framework distinguishes between mines and the land in which minerals are found. The Bill seeks to define mineral-bearing land according to criteria to be specified by the central government and bring such land within the Union government's regulatory ambit. The issue has particular legal importance because of the Supreme Court proceedings in the long-running Mineral Area Development Authority versus Steel Authority of India case, which examined the constitutional powers of states to impose taxes connected with mineral rights. The proposed amendments could therefore influence the broader debate over the respective roles of the Centre and states in the taxation and regulation of mineral resources.

The changes could also become increasingly important as India focuses on securing supplies of critical minerals. Resources such as lithium, cobalt, nickel, graphite and rare earth elements are essential for industries including electric vehicles, battery manufacturing, renewable energy, electronics and semiconductor technology. Increasing domestic access to these minerals has become a strategic priority for the government.

Another important provision of the Bill concerns taxation by state governments. The proposed law seeks to prevent states from imposing taxes, cesses or other levies on mineral rights or mineral-bearing land based on factors such as the quantity or value of minerals, royalty payable or similar measures unless those levies comply with conditions and restrictions prescribed by the Union government.

The Bill does not establish a specific tax rate or impose a fixed nationwide limit on such charges. Instead, the central government would determine the applicable conditions and restrictions through rules. This means the precise impact on state taxation will depend partly on the rules that are framed after the legislation is enacted.

The government has argued that differences in tax rates between states, multiple levies on mineral production and charges introduced after mining projects have already started can make investments more expensive and difficult to plan. It has also raised concerns about retrospective taxation, saying uncertainty over future liabilities can discourage investment and increase the cost of minerals for industries that rely on them.

The Bill also proposes to address certain existing state levies. Under the proposed provision, a tax, cess or other levy imposed by a state that has not been collected or recovered before the amended law comes into force would be treated as invalid. However, amounts that states had already collected or received before the amendment takes effect would not be required to be refunded.

This provision could have financial consequences for both state governments and mining companies, particularly where disputes over mineral-related taxes or cesses are still pending. The retrospective nature of the proposal is likely to make this one of the more closely watched aspects of the legislation. The government says the proposed changes are intended to provide greater certainty and stability in the fiscal environment. The Bill argues that unpredictable taxation, multiple charges on mineral output or dispatch, varying rates between states and retrospective levies can create uncertainty for businesses planning large and long-term investments.

By seeking to establish clearer limits around such levies, the government believes the proposed framework could improve investor confidence and encourage greater investment in mining and mineral exploration. A more predictable fiscal system could be particularly relevant for projects involving critical minerals, where India is seeking to expand domestic production and reduce reliance on imports.

The Bill comes at a time when the government is attempting to strengthen India's mineral security. As demand grows for electric vehicles, energy-storage systems, renewable energy technologies and advanced manufacturing, access to critical minerals is becoming increasingly important for both economic growth and strategic interests.

The proposed changes could mean less freedom to impose mineral-related taxes and cesses as they currently do. Since mining is an important source of revenue for several mineral-producing states, any restrictions on their taxation powers could have implications for state finances. The proposed amendments could provide greater clarity over taxation and regulatory requirements. For the Centre, the legislation would strengthen its role in managing mineral-bearing land and creating a more uniform framework for mineral development. The ultimate impact of the MMDR Bill 2026 will depend on its passage, the final wording adopted by Parliament and the rules subsequently issued by the central government. If implemented as proposed, however, the legislation could mark a notable shift in the balance between the Centre and states over the regulation and taxation of India's mineral resources.
Disclaimer: This image is taken from Business Standard.

India’s natural gas consumption recovered to nearly pre-disruption levels in June 2026, showing a broad-based improvement in demand across several key sectors. However, the recovery could face pressure from rising competition for liquefied natural gas (LNG) in international markets and elevated spot prices, according to a research report by Equirus.

India’s total gas consumption rose 7 per cent month-on-month and 2 per cent year-on-year to 197 million metric standard cubic metres per day (mmscmd) in June. Even after excluding demand from the power sector, consumption increased 7 per cent from May and 4 per cent compared with the same period last year, reaching 176 mmscmd. The figures indicate that the recovery in gas demand is becoming more broad-based rather than being driven by a single sector.

Imported gas was the main contributor to the increase. LNG consumption jumped 13 per cent month-on-month and 10 per cent year-on-year to 110 mmscmd. Domestic gas supplies, meanwhile, remained unchanged from the previous month at 87 mmscmd and were down 8 per cent compared with June 2025. This pushed India’s dependence on imported gas to 56 per cent.

Equirus also pointed to a significant revision in the May data, which has changed the assessment of the pace of recovery. Gas consumption for May was revised upwards to 184 mmscmd from the earlier estimate of 169 mmscmd, while LNG consumption was revised to 97 mmscmd from 83 mmscmd. The revisions suggest that demand had already recovered more strongly than previously estimated before the June increase.

Growth during June was spread across several segments. City gas distribution remained one of the largest contributors, with consumption increasing by 2.3 mmscmd from the previous month to 58 mmscmd. Demand from miscellaneous users rose by 3.9 mmscmd to 41 mmscmd, while refinery consumption increased by 2.6 mmscmd to 15 mmscmd. The refinery segment also benefited from a 25 per cent increase in imports. Fertiliser and power-sector consumption recorded improvements as well, while petrochemical demand recovered to 7 mmscmd. Despite the recovery, petrochemical consumption remained significantly below its year-earlier level.

The brokerage expects gas demand to remain healthy in July, although consumption could be slightly lower than June because of a moderation in power-sector demand. A further weakening is possible in August, when lower consumption from the Morbi cluster and seasonal factors could affect overall demand. At the same time, India’s LNG sourcing strategy has undergone a notable change. The country imported around 7 million tonnes of LNG between May and July, representing a 15 per cent increase from the corresponding period a year earlier. The increase came despite a sharp 91 per cent decline in LNG supplies from Qatar. The United States became the largest supplier during the period, followed by Nigeria and Oman, helping India diversify its sources and reduce its immediate dependence on Qatari cargoes.

The international LNG market remains challenging. Equirus said stronger LNG buying by China is increasing competition for flexible cargoes, potentially making it more difficult and expensive for other Asian buyers to secure supplies. Asian spot LNG prices moved above USD 19 per million British thermal units in July and have since risen beyond USD 20. European gas storage levels also remain below historical averages, adding to concerns about global supply-demand conditions.

The commissioning and ramp-up of new LNG projects around the world could eventually improve the availability of gas and provide some relief to buyers. However, the brokerage cautioned that shipping constraints, sanctions and payment-related risks could influence whether additional supplies actually reach countries such as India at competitive prices.

For India, the latest figures provide a positive signal for the domestic gas market, with demand returning close to earlier levels and growth becoming more widespread across industries. Yet, with more than half of consumption now dependent on imported gas, international LNG prices and supply conditions will remain crucial. The ability to secure reliable LNG at affordable prices could ultimately determine whether the current recovery develops into sustained growth in India’s natural gas market.
Disclaimer: This image is taken from ANI

India’s ethanol blending programme is increasingly influencing the country’s agricultural economy, with growing demand for ethanol feedstocks such as maize and sugarcane beginning to affect crop choices, farm incomes and the wider debate over food security. India has made rapid progress in its ethanol-blending programme in recent years. The country achieved a 20% ethanol blending rate in petrol during the 2025-26 supply year, five years ahead of its earlier target. Government data shows that ethanol blending has increased sharply from less than 1.5% in 2013-14 to 20% in 2025-26, while domestic ethanol production capacity has expanded substantially.

The government has described the programme as an important component of India’s energy-security strategy. By replacing a portion of petrol with domestically produced ethanol, India aims to reduce its dependence on imported crude oil, lower foreign-exchange expenditure and create an additional market for agricultural commodities. The policy, however, is having consequences far beyond the fuel sector.

As ethanol producers look for reliable supplies of feedstock, crops such as maize are gaining a new source of demand. Maize has traditionally been important for food, poultry feed, livestock and several industrial applications. The arrival of a growing ethanol market means producers now have another major buyer, potentially changing the economics of cultivation. For farmers, this can be an attractive development. A dependable market can reduce some of the uncertainty associated with agricultural prices and give growers greater confidence when deciding which crop to plant. In parts of Punjab, for example, the expansion of ethanol demand has encouraged interest in maize as an alternative to paddy. Farmers and millers have argued that the crop can provide a new commercial opportunity while also helping reduce dependence on water-intensive rice cultivation.

But the shift has also raised questions about what happens when the same crop is required for both fuel and food-related industries. The Economic Survey 2025-26 pointed to an emerging tension between energy security and food security. Stronger demand for ethanol feedstocks could encourage farmers to move towards crops such as maize at the expense of pulses and oilseeds. Such a change could eventually increase India's dependence on imports of commodities that are important to the domestic food supply.

The issue becomes particularly important because maize is a major input for the poultry and livestock industries. If ethanol producers absorb a larger share of available maize, feed manufacturers may face higher procurement costs. Those costs can move through the supply chain and eventually affect prices of products such as eggs, poultry and other animal-based foods.

Sugarcane presents another side of the ethanol story. India’s sugar industry has become an important source of ethanol, allowing sugar mills to diversify their revenues and reduce their dependence on sugar sales. Government policies encouraging the diversion of sugar-sector products towards ethanol have helped strengthen the link between the sugar industry and the fuel market. For sugar mills and cane farmers, the arrangement can provide an additional source of demand. However, sugarcane is also a water-intensive crop, making its expansion a concern in regions where groundwater resources are already under pressure. This means the success of ethanol production cannot be measured only in terms of fuel output or foreign-exchange savings. The impact on water use and regional cropping patterns also matters.

The government has highlighted the economic benefits of the ethanol programme. According to official figures, ethanol blending has helped reduce crude-oil consumption and generate substantial foreign-exchange savings since the programme began expanding. The government has also said that farmers have benefited through payments generated by the growing demand for ethanol feedstocks.

The programme has nevertheless become increasingly political. The debate over E20 has expanded from agricultural markets and energy security to questions involving consumers, automobile manufacturers and trade policy. Critics have raised concerns about vehicle compatibility, fuel efficiency and the broader economic consequences of higher ethanol blending, while the government has maintained that the programme is an important part of India’s long-term strategy to reduce oil dependence.

The issue has also surfaced in India's trade discussions with the United States. The government recently rejected reports that it had committed to importing large quantities of US fuel ethanol as part of a trade agreement, maintaining that the domestic ethanol-blending programme is intended to rely on domestic production. For Indian farmers and ethanol producers, the question of imports is significant because imported ethanol could compete with domestically produced supplies. For policymakers, it is another reminder that ethanol has evolved into a strategic commodity connecting agriculture, energy, trade and rural economics.

The bigger challenge now is maintaining a balance between these competing priorities. India needs to reduce its exposure to international crude-oil prices and improve energy security, but it also needs sufficient supplies of food, animal feed and edible oils. If ethanol incentives significantly change cropping patterns, the country could potentially reduce one form of import dependence while increasing another.

The future direction of the ethanol programme may therefore depend increasingly on diversification. Greater use of agricultural residues, waste-based feedstocks and advanced biofuel technologies could help reduce competition between fuel production and food markets. At the same time, policies supporting pulses, oilseeds and other essential crops will remain important if India wants to maintain a balanced agricultural system.

The rise of ethanol has demonstrated the growing political power of agricultural commodities. A government decision taken in the energy sector can influence what farmers grow, what industries pay for raw materials and what consumers eventually pay for food. India’s E20 journey is therefore no longer simply a story about mixing ethanol with petrol. It is becoming a much larger story about the future of Indian agriculture and how the country balances its demand for food, fuel, farmer income and energy independence.
Disclaimer: This image is taken from Hindustan Times.

On today’s (13 August) episode of Open For Business, Hairianto Diman and Justine Moss discuss the latest market trends and economic developments with Will McGough, Chief Investment Officer at Prime Capital Financial. The conversation explores current market conditions, investment sentiment, inflation, interest rates, and the broader outlook for investors as global financial markets respond to evolving economic signals and changing expectations.

Disclaimer: This podcast is taken from CNA.

On the July 13 edition of Open For Business, Andrea Heng and Hairianto Diman spoke with Mel Siew, Head of Asia Public Credit at Muzinich & Co., to examine the latest market trends. The discussion covered the resilience of Asian credit markets, growth opportunities in AI infrastructure, and the potential inflationary impact of rising oil prices on the global economy.

Disclaimer: This podcast is taken from CNA.

On the 2 July episode of Open For Business, Andrea Heng and Hairianto Diman sit down with Lorraine Tan, Morningstar's Director of Equity Research for Asia, for an in-depth analysis of the markets.

Disclaimer: This podcast is taken from CNA.

In a world increasingly dominated by digital wallets and quick online payments, cash is often viewed as outdated. Yet, for many people — from elderly citizens concerned about digital scams to families making everyday purchases at hawker centres — physical money remains a dependable and familiar way to pay. Andrea Heng and Hairianto Diman explore the importance of creating a payment ecosystem that remains accessible and inclusive for all. They speak with Wong Wanyi, FinTech Leader at PwC Singapore, about the role of cash in a rapidly changing financial landscape.

Disclaimer: This podcast is taken from CNA.