India’s natural gas consumption recovered to nearly pre-disruption levels in June 2026, showing a broad-based improvement in demand across several key sectors. However, the recovery could face pressure from rising competition for liquefied natural gas (LNG) in international markets and elevated spot prices, according to a research report by Equirus.

India’s total gas consumption rose 7 per cent month-on-month and 2 per cent year-on-year to 197 million metric standard cubic metres per day (mmscmd) in June. Even after excluding demand from the power sector, consumption increased 7 per cent from May and 4 per cent compared with the same period last year, reaching 176 mmscmd. The figures indicate that the recovery in gas demand is becoming more broad-based rather than being driven by a single sector.

Imported gas was the main contributor to the increase. LNG consumption jumped 13 per cent month-on-month and 10 per cent year-on-year to 110 mmscmd. Domestic gas supplies, meanwhile, remained unchanged from the previous month at 87 mmscmd and were down 8 per cent compared with June 2025. This pushed India’s dependence on imported gas to 56 per cent.

Equirus also pointed to a significant revision in the May data, which has changed the assessment of the pace of recovery. Gas consumption for May was revised upwards to 184 mmscmd from the earlier estimate of 169 mmscmd, while LNG consumption was revised to 97 mmscmd from 83 mmscmd. The revisions suggest that demand had already recovered more strongly than previously estimated before the June increase.

Growth during June was spread across several segments. City gas distribution remained one of the largest contributors, with consumption increasing by 2.3 mmscmd from the previous month to 58 mmscmd. Demand from miscellaneous users rose by 3.9 mmscmd to 41 mmscmd, while refinery consumption increased by 2.6 mmscmd to 15 mmscmd. The refinery segment also benefited from a 25 per cent increase in imports. Fertiliser and power-sector consumption recorded improvements as well, while petrochemical demand recovered to 7 mmscmd. Despite the recovery, petrochemical consumption remained significantly below its year-earlier level.

The brokerage expects gas demand to remain healthy in July, although consumption could be slightly lower than June because of a moderation in power-sector demand. A further weakening is possible in August, when lower consumption from the Morbi cluster and seasonal factors could affect overall demand. At the same time, India’s LNG sourcing strategy has undergone a notable change. The country imported around 7 million tonnes of LNG between May and July, representing a 15 per cent increase from the corresponding period a year earlier. The increase came despite a sharp 91 per cent decline in LNG supplies from Qatar. The United States became the largest supplier during the period, followed by Nigeria and Oman, helping India diversify its sources and reduce its immediate dependence on Qatari cargoes.

The international LNG market remains challenging. Equirus said stronger LNG buying by China is increasing competition for flexible cargoes, potentially making it more difficult and expensive for other Asian buyers to secure supplies. Asian spot LNG prices moved above USD 19 per million British thermal units in July and have since risen beyond USD 20. European gas storage levels also remain below historical averages, adding to concerns about global supply-demand conditions.

The commissioning and ramp-up of new LNG projects around the world could eventually improve the availability of gas and provide some relief to buyers. However, the brokerage cautioned that shipping constraints, sanctions and payment-related risks could influence whether additional supplies actually reach countries such as India at competitive prices.

For India, the latest figures provide a positive signal for the domestic gas market, with demand returning close to earlier levels and growth becoming more widespread across industries. Yet, with more than half of consumption now dependent on imported gas, international LNG prices and supply conditions will remain crucial. The ability to secure reliable LNG at affordable prices could ultimately determine whether the current recovery develops into sustained growth in India’s natural gas market.
Disclaimer: This image is taken from ANI

India’s ethanol blending programme is increasingly influencing the country’s agricultural economy, with growing demand for ethanol feedstocks such as maize and sugarcane beginning to affect crop choices, farm incomes and the wider debate over food security. India has made rapid progress in its ethanol-blending programme in recent years. The country achieved a 20% ethanol blending rate in petrol during the 2025-26 supply year, five years ahead of its earlier target. Government data shows that ethanol blending has increased sharply from less than 1.5% in 2013-14 to 20% in 2025-26, while domestic ethanol production capacity has expanded substantially.

The government has described the programme as an important component of India’s energy-security strategy. By replacing a portion of petrol with domestically produced ethanol, India aims to reduce its dependence on imported crude oil, lower foreign-exchange expenditure and create an additional market for agricultural commodities. The policy, however, is having consequences far beyond the fuel sector.

As ethanol producers look for reliable supplies of feedstock, crops such as maize are gaining a new source of demand. Maize has traditionally been important for food, poultry feed, livestock and several industrial applications. The arrival of a growing ethanol market means producers now have another major buyer, potentially changing the economics of cultivation. For farmers, this can be an attractive development. A dependable market can reduce some of the uncertainty associated with agricultural prices and give growers greater confidence when deciding which crop to plant. In parts of Punjab, for example, the expansion of ethanol demand has encouraged interest in maize as an alternative to paddy. Farmers and millers have argued that the crop can provide a new commercial opportunity while also helping reduce dependence on water-intensive rice cultivation.

But the shift has also raised questions about what happens when the same crop is required for both fuel and food-related industries. The Economic Survey 2025-26 pointed to an emerging tension between energy security and food security. Stronger demand for ethanol feedstocks could encourage farmers to move towards crops such as maize at the expense of pulses and oilseeds. Such a change could eventually increase India's dependence on imports of commodities that are important to the domestic food supply.

The issue becomes particularly important because maize is a major input for the poultry and livestock industries. If ethanol producers absorb a larger share of available maize, feed manufacturers may face higher procurement costs. Those costs can move through the supply chain and eventually affect prices of products such as eggs, poultry and other animal-based foods.

Sugarcane presents another side of the ethanol story. India’s sugar industry has become an important source of ethanol, allowing sugar mills to diversify their revenues and reduce their dependence on sugar sales. Government policies encouraging the diversion of sugar-sector products towards ethanol have helped strengthen the link between the sugar industry and the fuel market. For sugar mills and cane farmers, the arrangement can provide an additional source of demand. However, sugarcane is also a water-intensive crop, making its expansion a concern in regions where groundwater resources are already under pressure. This means the success of ethanol production cannot be measured only in terms of fuel output or foreign-exchange savings. The impact on water use and regional cropping patterns also matters.

The government has highlighted the economic benefits of the ethanol programme. According to official figures, ethanol blending has helped reduce crude-oil consumption and generate substantial foreign-exchange savings since the programme began expanding. The government has also said that farmers have benefited through payments generated by the growing demand for ethanol feedstocks.

The programme has nevertheless become increasingly political. The debate over E20 has expanded from agricultural markets and energy security to questions involving consumers, automobile manufacturers and trade policy. Critics have raised concerns about vehicle compatibility, fuel efficiency and the broader economic consequences of higher ethanol blending, while the government has maintained that the programme is an important part of India’s long-term strategy to reduce oil dependence.

The issue has also surfaced in India's trade discussions with the United States. The government recently rejected reports that it had committed to importing large quantities of US fuel ethanol as part of a trade agreement, maintaining that the domestic ethanol-blending programme is intended to rely on domestic production. For Indian farmers and ethanol producers, the question of imports is significant because imported ethanol could compete with domestically produced supplies. For policymakers, it is another reminder that ethanol has evolved into a strategic commodity connecting agriculture, energy, trade and rural economics.

The bigger challenge now is maintaining a balance between these competing priorities. India needs to reduce its exposure to international crude-oil prices and improve energy security, but it also needs sufficient supplies of food, animal feed and edible oils. If ethanol incentives significantly change cropping patterns, the country could potentially reduce one form of import dependence while increasing another.

The future direction of the ethanol programme may therefore depend increasingly on diversification. Greater use of agricultural residues, waste-based feedstocks and advanced biofuel technologies could help reduce competition between fuel production and food markets. At the same time, policies supporting pulses, oilseeds and other essential crops will remain important if India wants to maintain a balanced agricultural system.

The rise of ethanol has demonstrated the growing political power of agricultural commodities. A government decision taken in the energy sector can influence what farmers grow, what industries pay for raw materials and what consumers eventually pay for food. India’s E20 journey is therefore no longer simply a story about mixing ethanol with petrol. It is becoming a much larger story about the future of Indian agriculture and how the country balances its demand for food, fuel, farmer income and energy independence.
Disclaimer: This image is taken from Hindustan Times.

Union Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal met South Africa’s Minister of Trade, Industry and Competition Parks Tau to discuss ways to expand economic cooperation between the two countries. The meeting, held on the sidelines of the BRICS Trade Ministers’ Meeting, focused on strengthening bilateral trade ties and exploring new opportunities in key sectors, including manufacturing, pharmaceuticals and critical minerals.

Sharing details of the discussion on social media platform X, Goyal said both sides reviewed progress on the proposed India-Southern African Customs Union (SACU) Preferential Trade Agreement (PTA). The ministers also discussed finalising the Terms of Reference (ToRs) and working towards an early conclusion of negotiations.

The talks come as India hosts the BRICS Trade Ministers’ Meeting in Jaipur under its BRICS India 2026 Presidency. The gathering brings together member countries to promote greater trade cooperation, develop stronger supply chains, encourage innovation and support sustainable industrial growth.

India and South Africa share a long-standing strategic partnership that covers areas such as trade, investment, defence, science and technology, education and cooperation in international platforms like BRICS and IBSA. The SACU Secretariat in Namibia has already shared the draft Terms of Reference for discussions with India’s Department of Commerce, marking another step in the ongoing efforts to advance the proposed trade agreement.

The latest meeting highlights both countries’ focus on expanding economic engagement beyond traditional trade areas. Cooperation in critical minerals, pharmaceuticals and manufacturing has gained importance as nations look to secure reliable supply chains and strengthen industrial capabilities. The discussions also reflect India’s broader effort to deepen economic partnerships with BRICS nations during its presidency, with trade ministers focusing on building resilient value chains, encouraging innovation and supporting sustainable economic development.
Disclaimer: This image is taken from X/@PiyushGoyal.

Shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz slowed further on August 3, while vessel movements across the Bab el-Mandeb Strait dropped to their lowest level since June 1, reflecting renewed concerns over maritime security, according to a report by S&P Global. The report, based on data from S&P Global MINT and S&P Global Commodities at Sea, said the number of vessels crossing the Strait of Hormuz fell to 15 on August 3, down from a revised total of 19 recorded the previous day.

It also highlighted a new security incident in the region. According to the report, the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) center received information on the evening of August 3 that an unidentified projectile struck a cargo ship around 20 nautical miles northeast of Khasab, Oman. S&P Global further noted that five vessels conducted "dark transits" through the Strait of Hormuz, meaning they traveled without broadcasting visible tracking signals. Of the vessels crossing the strait, eight were identified as having links to Iran, while the remainder were considered compliant with monitoring requirements.

At the U.S. naval blockade line, analysts recorded 39 vessel movements on August 3, including 18 inbound and 21 outbound crossings. Among them, the Handysize tanker REEF was the only vessel classified as non-compliant after altering course toward the Omani port of Shinas. Shipping activity through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait declined sharply. The report said only 21 vessels passed through the strategic waterway on August 3, a steep drop from 36 crossings the previous day and the lowest daily traffic level observed during the current reporting period since June 1.

Of those transits, nine vessels were traveling northbound while 12 headed south toward the Gulf of Aden. Three ships were also found to be moving without visible tracking signals. The report added that only three vessels operating in the area were assessed as Saudi-linked. These included ships carrying or expected to load Saudi-origin cargo, Saudi-flagged vessels, or ships connected to Saudi Arabia through ownership, operations, or recent port calls.
Disclaimer: This image is taken from Reuters.

On the July 13 edition of Open For Business, Andrea Heng and Hairianto Diman spoke with Mel Siew, Head of Asia Public Credit at Muzinich & Co., to examine the latest market trends. The discussion covered the resilience of Asian credit markets, growth opportunities in AI infrastructure, and the potential inflationary impact of rising oil prices on the global economy.

Disclaimer: This podcast is taken from CNA.

On the 2 July episode of Open For Business, Andrea Heng and Hairianto Diman sit down with Lorraine Tan, Morningstar's Director of Equity Research for Asia, for an in-depth analysis of the markets.

Disclaimer: This podcast is taken from CNA.

In a world increasingly dominated by digital wallets and quick online payments, cash is often viewed as outdated. Yet, for many people — from elderly citizens concerned about digital scams to families making everyday purchases at hawker centres — physical money remains a dependable and familiar way to pay. Andrea Heng and Hairianto Diman explore the importance of creating a payment ecosystem that remains accessible and inclusive for all. They speak with Wong Wanyi, FinTech Leader at PwC Singapore, about the role of cash in a rapidly changing financial landscape.

Disclaimer: This podcast is taken from CNA.

A decade after the Brexit referendum, the United Kingdom is again facing a leadership transition, with the departure of Prime Minister Keir Starmer set to bring the country its seventh prime minister in just over 10 years. This frequent turnover reflects the ongoing political instability linked to the long-term effects of the Brexit. As nominations open on 9 July and a new prime minister is expected by September, analysts are examining what this latest leadership crisis reveals about Brexit’s lasting impact on British politics and governance, including insights from political analyst Alexander Hilton of Skystamper.
Disclaimer: This podcast is taken from CNA.