S&P Global Ratings said India’s strong macroeconomic and financial fundamentals are likely to soften the blow of a prolonged oil price shock, but growth could still decline by up to 80 basis points if Brent crude averages around $130 per barrel in 2026. Under this stress scenario, the agency expects corporate EBITDA to fall by 15–25% in FY27, while leverage could increase by 0.5x to 1x. Bank asset quality may also deteriorate, with non-performing loans rising to about 3.5%.

The report noted that India is not fully insulated from disruptions linked to the West Asia conflict, as higher energy prices and supply constraints could weigh on households, businesses, and banks for an extended period. At the same time, S&P highlighted that strong corporate balance sheets, well-capitalised banks, and a stable external position would act as important buffers.

In its assumptions, Brent crude is projected at $130 per barrel in 2026 and $100 in 2027 under stress conditions, compared with a base case of $85 and $70. The agency does not anticipate any immediate sovereign rating impact, although fiscal consolidation may face short-term pressure. Rising oil prices could also widen India’s current account deficit, with each $10 increase in crude potentially adding about 0.4 percentage points of GDP to the gap. The rupee may come under depreciation pressure due to higher import costs and weaker investor sentiment.

S&P added that an energy shock would likely pass through the economy via higher production costs, margin pressure, inflation, and possible government subsidies, which could strain public finances. Sectors such as chemicals, refining, and aviation are expected to be most affected, while infrastructure and utilities may remain relatively stable.

Despite these risks, India enters 2026 with strong growth momentum, solid domestic demand, and low inflation, which should help absorb near-term shocks. Corporate deleveraging and improved banking health over recent years are also expected to limit systemic stress. Indian banks are seen as capable of handling the impact due to strong capital buffers and low bad loans, though credit costs and profitability may face mild pressure in FY27. S&P said India is positioned to withstand short-term oil price spikes and supply disruptions, but a prolonged shock could pose risks to growth, fiscal stability, and external balances. It added that while some strain is manageable, fiscal consolidation efforts may be temporarily delayed.
Disclaimer: This image is taken from Bloomberg.

Indian Oil Minister Hardeep Puri is embarking on a two-day visit to Qatar starting Thursday, aiming to secure faster delivery of natural gas and cooking fuel amid India’s ongoing energy concerns. The trip comes at a time when a tentative ceasefire between the US and Iran has created a potential window to ease tensions affecting the Persian Gulf, a critical source of India’s fuel imports.

India depends on imports for roughly half of its natural gas requirements and about two-thirds of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), which is widely used for domestic cooking. Most of these supplies come from West Asia. The recent six-week conflict in the Persian Gulf has disrupted supply chains, causing shortages for industrial users and triggering price hikes across energy markets.

Qatar remains India’s largest supplier of both LNG and LPG, providing 45% and 20% of imports, respectively. However, after attacks on its key export facility, the Gulf nation declared force majeure on gas exports, warning that full recovery could take years. Officials familiar with Puri’s plans, speaking on condition of anonymity, indicate that he will seek expedited supply schedules and request that India be given priority for LNG shipments. The Oil Ministry announced the sudden trip via a social media post but did not provide further details.

Puri’s visit follows just a day after the US and Iran reached a ceasefire agreement, tied to reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping route. While the White House welcomed the truce, it remains fragile, and maritime traffic through the strait was still largely suspended on Thursday, leaving India dependent on diplomatic and bilateral engagement to secure its critical energy imports.

Disclaimer: This image is taken from PTI.

India’s central bank on Wednesday indicated the level of liquidity needed to keep overnight rates closely aligned with the key policy rate. It reiterated that the weighted average call rate (WACR) serves as its operating target and should remain as close as possible to the repo rate. According to the RBI’s monetary policy report, maintaining a liquidity surplus between 0.6 percent and 1.1 percent of deposits would likely keep the gap between the WACR and the policy rate within 5 to 10 basis points. The central bank noted that while liquidity and the spread move in opposite directions, the relationship is not linear.

The RBI left the repo rate and policy stance unchanged. Governor Sanjay Malhotra emphasized that the central bank will remain proactive and forward-looking in managing liquidity, ensuring adequate funds to support the economy’s productive needs. On the other hand, a liquidity deficit of 0.4 percent to 0.7 percent of deposits could push the WACR above the repo rate by 5 to 10 basis points. The RBI added that while excess liquidity beyond a certain point has limited additional impact on narrowing the spread, deficit conditions can cause the spread to widen sharply.

Liquidity in the banking system recently rose above 4 trillion rupees, its highest level in eight months, pulling the WACR below 5.10 percent this month—more than 15 basis points lower than the repo rate of 5.25 percent. The central bank also observed that the effect of surplus liquidity weakens after a threshold, as the yield curve flattens with further increases. The RBI noted that aligning the WACR with the repo rate requires different liquidity levels depending on whether the system is in surplus or deficit, and the degree of alignment depends on the magnitude of that surplus or shortfall.
Disclaimer: This image is taken from Business Standard

As the US-Iran-Israel conflict extends into its second month with no end in sight, India’s economic impact goes beyond oil price spikes and market volatility. The financial system is quietly absorbing the shock, with risks building beneath the surface. The real threat is delayed, cumulative stress that could emerge in coming quarters as liquidity tightens and cash-flow pressures affect asset quality.

An EY India analysis highlights that rising freight costs, insurance premiums, trade finance disruptions, and strained supply chains are reshaping cost structures and stretching liquidity across sectors. War risk premiums in shipping, aviation, and trade credit have surged 40-50%, while crude price swings and a weakening rupee are pushing up input costs.

Sectors directly exposed—oil, aviation, logistics, petrochemicals, and import-heavy trade—are already facing margin compression and liquidity strain. This stress is beginning to spread to MSME manufacturing, auto parts, cement, and consumer durables, where higher costs coincide with weaker demand. Much of the strain is hidden beneath the surface. Banks see early signs in cash-flow behavior rather than defaults, challenging traditional risk models. Export-oriented MSMEs, particularly apparel firms, face margin compression and longer cash cycles, which often escape standard risk detection.

Over time, stress spreads further: supplier payments get delayed, anchor firms stretch payouts, and local employment is disrupted. Household incomes, especially among urban lower-middle-class segments, are also under pressure from inflation and technology-driven job changes, causing irregular salary credits and shrinking balances—early indicators of rising delinquencies. Unsecured and small-ticket retail loans may experience delayed but sharper asset-quality deterioration.

Trade finance is an additional constraint, as shipping disruptions and stricter sanctions slow cross-border payments, tying up working capital. With 35-40% of India’s $138 billion remittances coming from the Gulf, any slowdown there could amplify risks. Insurance premiums for marine, aviation, and trade credit are already rising in response. While the financial system seems stable for now, EY warns that underlying liquidity, cash-flow, and income stresses could manifest later as deterioration in asset quality, making anticipatory risk management crucial.
Disclaimer: This image is taken from Bloomberg.

As tensions rise in Iran, the global energy system is being tested like never before. Critical chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz, along with concentrated LNG infrastructure in hubs like Ras Laffan, highlight the inherent rigidity and vulnerability of oil and gas markets. Andrea Heng and Hairianto Diman explore what “market adjustment” looks like when long-term contracts offer little flexibility, and why Europe could once again face a challenging scramble for energy supplies. Their analysis includes insights from Pang Lu Ming, Vice President of Gas & LNG Research at Rystad Energy.

Disclaimer: This podcast is taken from CNA.

Oil prices have jumped significantly as tensions in the Middle East intensify, with concerns over potential supply disruptions pushing crude prices up by double digits. If this upward trend persists, rising energy costs could reignite inflation and affect transportation, manufacturing, and household expenses globally. Andrea Heng and Hairianto Diman examine how various countries are stockpiling oil, diversifying their supplies, and managing the impact of higher prices, including insights from Vandana Hari, Founder of Vanda Insights.

Disclaimer: This podcast is taken from CNA.

On Saturday, President Donald Trump increased the US global import tariff to 15%, following the Supreme Court’s ruling that invalidated much of his previous tariff program. Trump described the new 15% rate as “fully allowed and legally tested,” replacing the earlier 10% plan, and said it would be temporary under current trade law for 150 days. Questions remain about how enforceable this measure is and what will happen once the 150-day period ends. Andrea Heng and Hairianto Diman discuss the implications with Angela Mancini, Partner and Head of the Global Risk Analysis Practice for Asia Pacific at Control Risks.

Disclaimer: This podcast is taken from CNA.

2026 is shaping up to be a defining year for the AI-driven economy. According to Saxo Bank’s latest analysis, the upcoming IPO pipeline is dominated by tech giants poised to move from private backing to public scrutiny. While OpenAI and Anthropic represent high-risk, high-reward bets on generative AI, companies like Canva and Stripe showcase more established models in SaaS and Fintech at scale. Andrea Heng and Susan Ng highlight the key factors investors should monitor — including governance, computing costs, and revenue sustainability — as these “private unicorns” prepare for their public market debut, with insights from Chan Yew Kiang, ASEAN IPO Leader at EY.
Disclaimer: This podcast is taken from CNA.