With the July 9 deadline to avoid U.S. tariffs approaching, the Indian government seems prepared to pursue a mutually beneficial trade deal with the U.S., while firmly protecting its key domestic interests. In an interview with The Financial Express, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman expressed India’s openness to a comprehensive trade agreement with the U.S., provided that sensitive issues—especially those affecting farmers and livestock producers—are respected.

“We would welcome a deal—a big, good, beautiful one; why not?” Sitharaman said, responding to U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent statement suggesting that a trade pact with India could unlock its markets for American goods. However, she stressed that agriculture and dairy remain “very big red lines” in the negotiations, signaling India’s intent to safeguard the livelihoods of millions dependent on these sectors.

Sitharaman added that forming trade agreements with strong global economies is in line with India’s development goals, especially its ambition to become a developed nation (Viksit Bharat) by 2047. Meanwhile, in the U.S., President Trump’s economic proposal—the so-called ‘Big Beautiful Bill’—moved a step forward as Senate Republicans cleared a key procedural hurdle. The bill, which includes major tax cuts, fiscal reforms, and stricter border controls, now heads into formal debate.

The Senate narrowly voted 51–49 to begin discussions on the 940-page bill, with two Republicans siding with Democrats. Vice President JD Vance was prepared to cast a tie-breaking vote if needed, but it wasn’t necessary. The bill includes $3.8–$4 trillion in tax cuts, such as extending the 2017 tax rates and exempting tips from taxation. Republicans argue the move is needed to prevent automatic tax hikes set to take effect at year-end. However, a Congressional Budget Office report warns the bill could increase the national deficit by $3.3 trillion and leave nearly 12 million more Americans without health insurance by 2034.

The bill has also caused rifts within the Republican Party, with some lawmakers calling for deeper cuts—especially in healthcare. Trump himself has reportedly urged caution. Provisions in the bill include cutting billions in green energy subsidies (drawing sharp criticism from Democrats), reducing Medicaid and food stamp spending by $1.2 trillion through stricter eligibility rules, and allocating $350 billion to national and border security, partly funded by new immigration-related fees.
Disclaimer: This image is taken from PTI.

India’s economy continues to display remarkable resilience despite mounting global uncertainties, with robust growth in both the industrial and services sectors. According to the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) latest monthly bulletin, high-frequency indicators point to sustained momentum in economic activity. This consistent performance is further reinforced by a favorable inflation outlook, with headline inflation staying within the RBI’s tolerance band of 4 percent for the fourth consecutive month in May, contributing to overall macroeconomic stability. The central bank also noted that financial conditions remain supportive, allowing for effective transmission of recent monetary policy changes. Following a 50 basis point cut in the repo rate aimed at stimulating growth, early indications suggest an uptick in credit activity across the economy.

While the global environment remains uncertain due to escalating trade tensions and geopolitical conflicts—particularly the Iran-Israel situation—the domestic economy appears largely unfazed. The RBI highlighted volatility in global financial and commodity markets, with rising crude oil prices and increased gold demand reflecting broader investor caution. Nevertheless, investor sentiment in India remained largely positive in May and early June, helped in part by temporary tariff suspensions by the United States.

India also led global peers in Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rankings for May, driven by a sharp increase in new export orders. This performance stood in contrast to declines observed in other major economies. On the domestic front, rural consumption is gathering pace, thanks to a strong agricultural season. Manufacturing firms reported capacity utilization above long-term averages, and agricultural production expanded across most key crops in the 2024–25 season. Consumer surveys suggest that current sentiment is stable and optimism for the future is on the rise. Drawing on these developments, the RBI concluded that the Indian economy remains on a firm footing, capable of withstanding external headwinds and continuing its growth trajectory.
Disclaimer: This image is taken from abp news.

Russia's economy is teetering on the edge of a recession, Economy Minister Maxim Reshetnikov warned on Thursday, as reported by Russian media outlets. The announcement was made during the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, an annual event intended to showcase Russia’s economic strength and attract foreign investment.

Speaking at the forum, Reshetnikov stated that current data suggests a slowdown in economic activity. He emphasized, however, that these figures offer only a retrospective view. “Based on how businesses are currently feeling and key indicators, it seems to me that we are already on the brink of recession,” he said, according to Russian business publication RBC.

Despite facing extensive sanctions since Russia's military intervention in Ukraine began in February 2022, the economy has performed better than many analysts initially forecast. Strong defense spending has driven economic growth and kept unemployment levels low, even though it has contributed to inflation. At the same time, rising wages have helped workers maintain purchasing power, with some even seeing improvements in living standards.

Incentives like generous enlistment bonuses and compensation for soldiers killed in Ukraine have also funneled more money into economically disadvantaged regions. Still, economists caution that this military-driven economic momentum is unsustainable in the long run. A lack of foreign investment and persistent inflation pose serious risks to future stability, particularly as non-military sectors continue to see limited growth.

During the forum, Reshetnikov stressed that the country's future economic path depends heavily on government policy decisions. “It all depends on our decisions going forward,” he said.

In contrast, other top officials painted a more hopeful picture. Finance Minister Anton Siluanov acknowledged the economic "cooling" but compared it to a seasonal cycle, saying, “after any cooling, summer always comes.” Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina also downplayed the concerns, suggesting the economy was simply “coming out of overheating,” rather than heading into a full-blown downturn.
Disclaimer:This image is taken from AFP.

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is set to meet senior officials from the income tax, GST, and customs departments to evaluate their performance in key areas such as taxpayer services, litigation management, refund processing, and trade facilitation, according to official sources. On June 23, she will meet principal chief commissioners of the income tax department, focusing on improving service delivery, reducing legal disputes, and boosting system accountability. The review will include the backlog of appeals by age and efforts to speed up the resolution of old cases. The minister is also expected to address refund delays, particularly those caused by issues in processing returns under Section 143(1) and rectification cases affected by system glitches.

Concerns may also be raised about zones with long-pending vigilance cases and unresolved disciplinary matters. Sitharaman could highlight successful practices from some regions and emphasize the need for a tech-driven, transparent, and taxpayer-friendly approach across the department. On June 20, she will hold discussions with principal chief commissioners from the Central Board of Indirect Taxes and Customs (CBIC) to assess the performance of GST and customs field units.

She is expected to stress timely refund processing, especially for exports and SEZs. Refunds delayed beyond 60 days will be closely examined, and officials may need to explain the causes of delays and rejections with detailed data. The review will also cover cargo clearance times at ports and airports, with zone-wise data on clearances, inspections, and timelines under the risk management system.

High levels of pending investigations at the Directorate General of GST Intelligence (DGGI), especially those older than 180 days, are expected to be critically examined. The minister will likely underscore the importance of timely vigilance actions, clear accountability in physical verifications, and technology-driven process improvements, reflecting the government’s focus on both compliance and ease of trade.
Disclaimer: This image is taken from Business Standard.

If the US dollar falls against the Singapore dollar, is it a good idea to buy it even if you’re not planning a trip to the US soon? And what are the risks if the exchange rate drops sharply? In this week’s episode of Money Talks, Khoon Goh, Head of Asia Research at ANZ, explains the fundamentals of currency exchange.

Disclaimer: This Podcast is taken from CNA.

Singapore’s economy expanded by 3.9% year-on-year in the first quarter, slightly surpassing expectations. However, this marks a slowdown from the 5% growth recorded in Q4 2024. The Ministry of Trade and Industry cautioned that the global economic outlook continues to be marked by considerable uncertainty. Lance Alexander and Daniel Martin discuss the developments further with Selena Ling, Chief Economist at OCBC.
Disclaimer: This Podcast is taken from CNA.