Russia's economy is teetering on the edge of a recession, Economy Minister Maxim Reshetnikov warned on Thursday, as reported by Russian media outlets. The announcement was made during the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, an annual event intended to showcase Russia’s economic strength and attract foreign investment.

Speaking at the forum, Reshetnikov stated that current data suggests a slowdown in economic activity. He emphasized, however, that these figures offer only a retrospective view. “Based on how businesses are currently feeling and key indicators, it seems to me that we are already on the brink of recession,” he said, according to Russian business publication RBC.

Despite facing extensive sanctions since Russia's military intervention in Ukraine began in February 2022, the economy has performed better than many analysts initially forecast. Strong defense spending has driven economic growth and kept unemployment levels low, even though it has contributed to inflation. At the same time, rising wages have helped workers maintain purchasing power, with some even seeing improvements in living standards.

Incentives like generous enlistment bonuses and compensation for soldiers killed in Ukraine have also funneled more money into economically disadvantaged regions. Still, economists caution that this military-driven economic momentum is unsustainable in the long run. A lack of foreign investment and persistent inflation pose serious risks to future stability, particularly as non-military sectors continue to see limited growth.

During the forum, Reshetnikov stressed that the country's future economic path depends heavily on government policy decisions. “It all depends on our decisions going forward,” he said.

In contrast, other top officials painted a more hopeful picture. Finance Minister Anton Siluanov acknowledged the economic "cooling" but compared it to a seasonal cycle, saying, “after any cooling, summer always comes.” Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina also downplayed the concerns, suggesting the economy was simply “coming out of overheating,” rather than heading into a full-blown downturn.
Disclaimer:This image is taken from AFP.

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is set to meet senior officials from the income tax, GST, and customs departments to evaluate their performance in key areas such as taxpayer services, litigation management, refund processing, and trade facilitation, according to official sources. On June 23, she will meet principal chief commissioners of the income tax department, focusing on improving service delivery, reducing legal disputes, and boosting system accountability. The review will include the backlog of appeals by age and efforts to speed up the resolution of old cases. The minister is also expected to address refund delays, particularly those caused by issues in processing returns under Section 143(1) and rectification cases affected by system glitches.

Concerns may also be raised about zones with long-pending vigilance cases and unresolved disciplinary matters. Sitharaman could highlight successful practices from some regions and emphasize the need for a tech-driven, transparent, and taxpayer-friendly approach across the department. On June 20, she will hold discussions with principal chief commissioners from the Central Board of Indirect Taxes and Customs (CBIC) to assess the performance of GST and customs field units.

She is expected to stress timely refund processing, especially for exports and SEZs. Refunds delayed beyond 60 days will be closely examined, and officials may need to explain the causes of delays and rejections with detailed data. The review will also cover cargo clearance times at ports and airports, with zone-wise data on clearances, inspections, and timelines under the risk management system.

High levels of pending investigations at the Directorate General of GST Intelligence (DGGI), especially those older than 180 days, are expected to be critically examined. The minister will likely underscore the importance of timely vigilance actions, clear accountability in physical verifications, and technology-driven process improvements, reflecting the government’s focus on both compliance and ease of trade.
Disclaimer: This image is taken from Business Standard.

India and Italy have agreed to boost cooperation in sectors including manufacturing, automotive, aerospace, energy transition, migration, and mobility, according to an official statement released Friday. These topics were discussed during meetings between India’s Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal and Italy’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani in Brescia, known as Italy’s manufacturing hub.

The commerce ministry said both countries agreed to prioritize collaboration in key and emerging areas such as Industry 4.0, aerospace, energy transition, and sustainable mobility. They also emphasized joint efforts in skill development, digital transformation, migration, mobility, and global connectivity projects like the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC).

During the 22nd India-Italy Joint Commission for Economic Cooperation (JCEC) session, co-chaired by the two leaders, several tangible outcomes were reached. These include enhanced cooperation in agriculture and food processing, and the formation of Joint Working Groups for the automobile and space sectors. Both nations identified opportunities in sustainable agricultural value chains, agri-machinery, food packaging technology, and renewable energy. They also agreed to collaborate on green hydrogen and biofuels, and to facilitate the movement of skilled professionals between India and Italy.

A strong Indian business delegation of nearly 90 company leaders accompanied Minister Goyal on the visit. The group toured Italian industries, held multiple meetings with local firms, and Goyal engaged in one-on-one discussions with Italian corporate leaders, welcoming their plans to expand operations, manufacturing, or establish a presence in India.
Disclaimer: This image is taken from PTI.

Kumar Mangalam Birla, Chairperson of the Aditya Birla Group, expressed confidence in increasing investments in the United States during his interaction with ANI at the US-India Strategic Partnership Forum. He shared that the group has already invested around $15 billion in the US, making it the largest Indian investor in the country. Reflecting on their 16-year presence, Birla described the group's experience in the US as highly positive and expressed intentions to expand further.

Birla also pointed out Novelis' ongoing investment in a greenfield low-carbon aluminium recycling and rolling facility in Bay Minette, Alabama. The project aims to cater to the growing demand for aluminium-based beverage packaging and automotive solutions. He noted that this $4 billion project is the largest greenfield investment the group has ever undertaken globally.

Following remarks by US Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick, Birla acknowledged Lutnick’s optimistic view on the India-US partnership and its promising future. In a video shared on X, Lutnick mentioned his participation in the US-India Strategic Partnership Forum Annual Leadership Summit, highlighting the strong bilateral relationship and expressing hope for a forthcoming trade agreement that benefits both nations. Additionally, the US recently announced an expansion of its defense ties with India, emphasizing joint military exercises and strengthened cooperation through the QUAD and other multilateral platforms.
Disclaimer: This image is taken from ANI.

If the US dollar falls against the Singapore dollar, is it a good idea to buy it even if you’re not planning a trip to the US soon? And what are the risks if the exchange rate drops sharply? In this week’s episode of Money Talks, Khoon Goh, Head of Asia Research at ANZ, explains the fundamentals of currency exchange.

Disclaimer: This Podcast is taken from CNA.

Singapore’s economy expanded by 3.9% year-on-year in the first quarter, slightly surpassing expectations. However, this marks a slowdown from the 5% growth recorded in Q4 2024. The Ministry of Trade and Industry cautioned that the global economic outlook continues to be marked by considerable uncertainty. Lance Alexander and Daniel Martin discuss the developments further with Selena Ling, Chief Economist at OCBC.
Disclaimer: This Podcast is taken from CNA.