The Indian rupee is expected to remain in the range of Rs 94.5 to Rs 96 against the US dollar in the near term, according to a research report by Bank of Baroda. The report said substantial dollar inflows through Foreign Currency Non-Resident (FCNR) deposits and External Commercial Borrowings (ECBs) have not resulted in a corresponding appreciation of the rupee because much of the incoming foreign currency has been absorbed into the Reserve Bank of India's foreign exchange reserves.

According to the report, the rupee's movement is being influenced by several factors at the same time, including economic fundamentals, RBI intervention and market sentiment. This makes it difficult to link changes in the exchange rate to any single factor. Based on the current market conditions, the report expects the rupee to remain within the Rs 94.5-96 range in the near term.

The report noted that the additional dollar inflows could theoretically have provided stronger support to the rupee. However, since the funds have largely been added to the country's foreign exchange reserves instead of being released into the market, their impact on the currency has been limited.

The rupee has experienced a significant decline over the past few years. Its average exchange rate moved from Rs 74.44 per US dollar in January 2022 to Rs 95.47 in August 2026, representing a depreciation of around 28 per cent. During the same period, the US dollar gained about 2.4 per cent against the euro, while the Japanese yen, Indonesian rupiah and South Korean won weakened by approximately 38 per cent, 24 per cent and 17 per cent, respectively.

Bank of Baroda's research examined monthly currency movements between January 2022 and June 2026. The analysis considered changes in foreign exchange reserves, RBI operations in the spot and forward markets, foreign portfolio investor flows and movements in the dollar-euro exchange rate. The study found that RBI intervention through spot and forward market operations had a notable relationship with movements in the rupee. When both forms of intervention were considered together, they explained around 34 per cent of the variation in the currency. Spot intervention alone accounted for about 25 per cent, while forward operations explained roughly 19 per cent.

At the same time, changes in foreign exchange reserves had relatively limited explanatory power, accounting for around 18 per cent of rupee movements. This suggests that a rise in forex reserves following large dollar inflows does not necessarily result in a significant immediate change in the exchange rate.

Foreign portfolio investment flows were found to be relevant when assessed independently, but their significance declined when other factors were included in the analysis. The report therefore concluded that the rupee is influenced by multiple factors operating through different channels rather than by one dominant variable.

The variables included in the study explained less than 40 per cent of the overall movement in the rupee. The remaining variation was attributed to factors that are more difficult to measure, including market sentiment and the timing of foreign currency purchases by importers and exporters, as well as remittance flows. With these factors continuing to influence the currency market, the Bank of Baroda report expects the rupee to remain broadly within the Rs 94.5-96 per dollar range in the near term.

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The United States and India should step up efforts to finalise a “historic” trade agreement aimed at reducing trade barriers and keeping tariffs as low as possible, US-India Business Council (USIBC) President and former Ambassador Atul Keshap said, according to a statement issued by the organisation. Keshap urged both governments to maintain momentum in the negotiations, saying a reciprocal trade agreement could build on the record investments made during 2026 and create new opportunities for businesses in both countries.

He said a deal could provide immediate economic benefits by supporting manufacturing, expanding access to consumer markets and strengthening cooperation in emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence. According to Keshap, completing the agreement would also give greater stability and predictability to the broader economic and strategic relationship between India and the US.

The USIBC called on New Delhi and Washington to use the progress achieved during the year to reach an agreement that reduces trade restrictions and limits tariffs. The council said such a pact would consolidate the progress made in the negotiations and provide businesses with greater certainty. Keshap also said members of the USIBC remain committed to strengthening commercial ties between the two countries. The council said its members are ready to work with both governments to expand cooperation between the US economy and India's rapidly growing economy.

Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal said on Thursday that India and the US had largely completed the negotiations on the trade agreement. However, he indicated that India wants to ensure that the final arrangement provides its exporters with a competitive position in the American market.

Speaking at the 13th Annual Forum 2026 India 3.0, Goyal said the agreement was close to completion and that the remaining task was to secure terms that would allow Indian businesses to compete effectively with exporters from other countries. The US continues to be India's largest export destination. According to figures cited by Reuters, India's merchandise exports to the American market increased to USD 42.79 billion between April and August, compared with USD 40.39 billion during the same period last year.

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India is entering a potentially strong phase of unsecured credit growth, with personal loans expected to emerge as the key driver, according to a report by UBS. The investment bank said the outlook is supported by improving asset quality, stable household leverage, ample liquidity in the financial system and a gradual shift among lenders towards taking greater credit risk.

The assessment comes after a three-year adjustment period across several unsecured lending segments, including microfinance, personal loans, credit cards and unsecured business loans. UBS said asset quality has improved significantly across most of these categories, creating conditions for lenders to increase credit availability.

India's unsecured household leverage had increased from around 6 per cent of GDP in FY19 to approximately 10 per cent in FY24. However, the ratio has remained largely stable over the past three years. At the same time, gold-backed lending has expanded considerably, increasing from about 1 per cent of GDP to nearly 5 per cent by FY26.

UBS expects the rapid growth in gold loans to moderate as gold prices stabilise. Since gold loans have served as an important alternative to personal loans in recent years, slower growth in this segment could leave more room for personal lending to regain momentum. Signs of a recovery are already emerging. Citing CRIF data for August 2026, UBS said personal loan growth at NBFCs accelerated to around 30 per cent year-on-year, while banks recorded growth of about 9 per cent. For banks, the pace marked the strongest growth in nearly two years.

The recovery in NBFC personal lending has been particularly visible in mid-sized and larger-ticket loans. Together, these categories account for roughly 75 per cent of the overall NBFC personal loan portfolio. UBS said annual personal loan growth among NBFCs increased from about 16 per cent in March 2025 to 30 per cent in August 2026.

Improving asset quality is another factor strengthening the outlook. UBS said early-stage delinquency indicators across unsecured lending products have shown some of their strongest readings in recent quarters, although certain pockets of stress remain, particularly among smaller-ticket business loans issued by NBFCs.

In the NBFC personal loan segment, the share of loans that were between one and 30 days overdue declined to around 1.8 per cent in August 2026 from 3.5 per cent in June 2024. The report said personal loan asset quality across different loan sizes at banks and NBFCs is now at its strongest level in several quarters.

UBS believes the combination of stronger asset quality, faster personal loan growth and favourable liquidity conditions could support the earnings outlook for some lenders. The investment bank expects the unsecured lending cycle to gain momentum, with personal loans likely to lead the next stage of growth. The developments also highlight how lenders are gradually moving away from the cautious approach adopted during the previous credit cycle. While the improvement in asset quality provides room for faster lending, continued monitoring of borrower stress and underwriting standards will remain important as unsecured credit expands.

Disclaimer: This image is taken from ANI.

A fresh debate has erupted over India’s latest Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures, with economists and former policymakers raising questions about the methodology behind the newly released growth estimates. The controversy has centred on the reported 7.8 per cent real GDP growth for the April-June quarter of 2026-27 and the changes introduced under India’s revised national accounts framework. The dispute has been described as a “fight over the donkey’s shadow”, reflecting the argument that excessive focus on the exact GDP number could draw attention away from the broader condition of the economy. The latest figures have nevertheless renewed discussion over how India measures economic activity and how the revised data should be interpreted.

India has introduced a new GDP series using 2022-23 as the base year, replacing the earlier base year. The updated framework incorporates newer data sources and changes in the methodology used to estimate economic activity. Such revisions can also lead to changes in previously published growth rates, making comparisons between the old and new series more complicated.

The official estimate of 7.8 per cent growth has faced criticism from former finance secretary Subhash Chandra Garg, who has questioned the calculations behind the number. The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation has rejected the criticism and defended the methodology used to produce the latest estimate. GDP estimates are calculated using data from several parts of the economy, including manufacturing, services, consumption, investment and government activity. Since the figures are compiled from multiple datasets, revisions are a normal part of the national accounts process as additional information becomes available and statistical methods are updated.

The controversy has also brought attention to the importance of understanding what GDP can and cannot measure. GDP provides an indication of the size and growth of economic activity, but the headline figure does not reveal how income is distributed or how individual households are experiencing economic conditions. Strong economic growth can occur alongside concerns over employment, household purchasing power, inflation or the cost of essential services. These factors require separate indicators and cannot be fully captured by the GDP growth rate alone.

India’s economic performance is therefore being assessed through a wider range of indicators, including per-capita income, consumption, investment, employment and inflation. These measures can provide additional context about whether economic expansion is translating into higher incomes, greater job opportunities and stronger household demand.

Accurate GDP statistics remain important for policymakers, businesses and investors. Government decisions on economic planning and public spending rely heavily on national accounts data, while companies use growth estimates to assess demand and investment opportunities. The latest GDP controversy is consequently about more than a single percentage figure. It has opened a wider discussion about the methodology used to measure India’s economy, the interpretation of revised data and the difference between economic growth and broader improvements in living standards.

The latest GDP estimates may undergo further revisions. The debate is therefore likely to continue as economists and policymakers examine the new series and compare GDP growth with other measures of economic activity. The central economic question extends beyond the headline growth rate. The quality of growth, the creation of productive employment, household incomes, investment and the distribution of economic gains will also determine how the country’s economic progress is ultimately understood.
Disclaimer: This image is taken from Hindustan Times.

Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers unveiled Treasury’s 40-year economic projections as part of the Albanese government’s second Intergenerational Report. The report highlights several long-term challenges facing Australia, including shifting geopolitical conditions, the rapid growth of artificial intelligence and a significant demographic change, with deaths expected to exceed births within the coming decades. In an interview with Guardian Australia political editor Tom McIlroy and economics editor Patrick Commins, Chalmers discussed the outlook for the Australian economy and explained why he believes Labor’s policy plans can help the country adapt to an increasingly uncertain future.

Disclaimer: This podcast is taken from The Guardian.

Oil markets are coming under renewed strain after attacks disrupted Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline, an important alternative route to the Strait of Hormuz. With Brent and WTI crude prices climbing above US$100 per barrel and fuel costs continuing to rise, concerns are growing over the resilience of global oil supplies. Susan Ng speaks with Jaime Brito, Executive Director of Refining and Oil Markets at Dow Jones Energy, about the potential impact of a prolonged disruption on Singapore and wider Asian markets.

Disclaimer: This podcast is taken from CNA.

The White House has announced the threat of sanctions against countries that continue to conduct trade with Iran, intensifying Washington’s efforts to put further economic pressure on Tehran as its military campaign faces mounting challenges. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent unveiled what he described as “Operation Economic Outcast”, drawing a comparison with the historic D-Day invasion to underline the scale of the economic measures being pursued against Iran. The strategy aims to deepen Iran’s economic isolation by discouraging other countries from maintaining commercial ties with Tehran. However, China, Iran’s largest trading partner, has already indicated that it is unlikely to support or comply with President Donald Trump’s efforts to target the Iranian economy. The latest measures come as the Trump administration looks to increase pressure on Tehran and force an end to the conflict. The move raises questions over how effective the economic campaign will be and whether Washington can persuade major trading partners to join its strategy. Lucy Hough discusses the latest developments with Julian Borger, senior international correspondent, examining the US pressure campaign, China’s position and what the economic escalation could mean for the wider conflict.

Disclaimer: This podcast is taken from The Guardian.

In today’s 17 August market analysis on Open For Business, Hairianto Diman and Justine Moss are joined by Nick Ferres, Chief Investment Officer at Vantage Point, to discuss the latest market trends and developments.

Disclaimer: This podcast is taken from CNA.