North Korea may be heading toward a tense internal power struggle. South Korea’s intelligence agency has indicated that Kim Jong Un’s teenage daughter, Kim Ju Ae, is close to being formally named his successor — a development that could eventually pit her against her influential aunt, Kim Yo Jong.

Lawmakers were informed by South Korea’s National Intelligence Service (NIS) that Kim Ju Ae, believed to be around 13 years old, is nearing official recognition as heir apparent. The update comes as Pyongyang prepares for a major political gathering later this month, where Kim Jong Un is expected to outline key national objectives and further consolidate authority. Intelligence officials are closely observing whether Kim Ju Ae appears alongside her father before large crowds at the upcoming congress of the Workers' Party of Korea. Kim Ju Ae first entered public view during a long-range missile test in November 2022. Since then, she has frequently accompanied her father to military drills, weapons demonstrations, parades, factory inspections, and even on a trip to Beijing last September for a high-level meeting with China’s leadership during a World War II commemoration.

Earlier, officials in Seoul were skeptical that a young girl would be selected to lead North Korea, citing the country’s traditionally male-dominated leadership structure. However, her consistent public presence has prompted a reassessment. Intelligence officials have suggested that her appearance in China may have been part of efforts to shape a succession narrative.

Any transition of power could face complications from Kim Yo Jong, the leader’s 38-year-old sister, who is widely regarded as one of the most powerful figures in the country. Holding a senior role in the ruling party’s central leadership, she is believed to command strong political and military support. Former South Korean intelligence official Rah Jong Yil has described a power struggle as “probable,” suggesting that Kim Yo Jong might pursue leadership if she believed conditions favored her. He indicated she would have little reason to hold back from advancing her own political ambitions. Kim Yo Jong has cultivated a reputation for issuing forceful public statements, often under her own name. In 2022, she sharply criticized South Korea’s defense minister, warning of severe consequences over comments about a potential preemptive strike against North Korea.

A December analysis published by Stimson Center’s project 38 North cautioned that sudden instability — such as the unexpected death or illness of Kim Jong Un — could trigger internal turbulence. The report noted that more politically established figures, including Kim Yo Jong, would be better positioned to assume control in the near term, while Kim Ju Ae and her siblings are still considered too young and inexperienced to realistically lead within the next five to fifteen years.

North Korea’s leadership history includes harsh purges. After assuming power in 2011, Kim Jong Un ordered the execution of his uncle, Jang Song Thaek, in 2013 on charges of anti-party and counter-revolutionary activities. His half-brother, Kim Jong Nam, was assassinated in 2017 at Kuala Lumpur International Airport using the VX nerve agent.

North Korea remains one of the world’s most heavily armed nuclear states. As of early 2024, estimates suggest the country possesses around 50 nuclear warheads and sufficient fissile material to produce between 70 and 90 weapons. It is also believed to maintain advanced chemical and biological weapons programs, while significantly accelerating ballistic missile testing in recent years.