NATO leaders are meeting in The Hague on Wednesday (June 25) for a summit that appears to cater to U.S. President Donald Trump, as European allies hope that committing to a sharp increase in defence spending will reassure him of their dedication to the alliance. The summit is set to approve a new defence spending goal of 5% of GDP — a significant boost from the current 2% target — responding to Trump’s demands and growing concerns in Europe over Russia’s threat since its 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

Officials are hoping that escalating tensions in the Middle East — including the Israel-Iran conflict and recent U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities — won’t overshadow the summit. The event is being hosted by NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte in his hometown. Trump has repeatedly warned that he may not defend NATO members who don’t meet spending requirements and once again cast doubt on his commitment to Article 5 — NATO’s principle of collective defence — while en route to the summit. Speaking aboard Air Force One, he said Article 5 has "many definitions" and added, "I'm committed to saving lives and safety. I'll provide a clear definition when I get there."

The new 5% target, to be met over a decade, includes 3.5% of GDP for core defence — like personnel and weapons — and 1.5% for broader measures such as cyber defence and infrastructure upgrades for military mobility. While all NATO members have signed off on this pledge, Spain has said it does not need to meet the full target, claiming it can fulfil its obligations with less spending — a claim Rutte disagrees with. Still, he negotiated a diplomatic compromise with Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez to ensure the summit’s success and offer Trump a political win.

In a rare glimpse into backroom diplomacy, Trump shared a private message on Tuesday in which Rutte praised his actions in Iran and said, "Europe is going to pay in a big way... and it will be your win." To please Trump, Rutte also ensured that the summit and its final statement would be brief and centered on the spending commitment. The communiqué is expected to highlight the Russian threat and reaffirm support for Ukraine but avoid focusing heavily on these topics, reflecting Trump’s more lenient stance on Moscow and less enthusiastic backing of Kyiv compared to former President Joe Biden.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who hoped for a central role, attended only a pre-summit dinner on Tuesday. Trump is expected to meet him separately. Zelenskyy had also planned to meet Trump at the G7 summit in Canada, but that was canceled after Trump left early due to the Middle East crisis. Zelenskyy and his team hope to discuss acquiring more U.S. weapons — including Patriot missile systems — and pushing for stronger sanctions on Russia. Meanwhile, the Kremlin accused NATO of accelerating militarisation and demonising Russia to justify its steep defence budget increases.