US President Donald Trump’s statement that India will stop buying Russian oil has set off a wave of speculation in energy and diplomatic circles. During a press briefing, Trump said Prime Minister Narendra Modi personally assured him that New Delhi would end crude imports from Moscow “very soon.” The declaration came just days after Washington imposed an additional 25% tariff on Indian exports as a penalty for continuing to purchase Russian oil. Yet, while the claim grabbed headlines, the numbers paint a much more complex — and less dramatic — picture.​

Despite Trump’s assertion, data from international tracking firms shows that Russia remains India’s largest source of crude. According to Kpler, a market analytics firm, Russian oil accounted for around 34% of India’s total imports in September 2025. In fact, New Delhi imported more than 4.5 million barrels per day that month — a figure slightly higher than August, though down about 8.4% compared to the same period last year. Even with this dip, India remains the world’s second-largest buyer of Russian fossil fuels after China, purchasing oil worth roughly ₹25,597 crore in September alone.​

The reasons behind these patterns are rooted in practical economics. Indian refiners have benefitted significantly from discounted Russian crude, saving an estimated $2–3 per barrel compared to global benchmarks like Brent. Private companies such as Reliance Industries and Nayara Energy have actually increased their intake of Russian oil in 2025, even as state-run firms cut imports by over 45% due to narrowing discounts and geopolitical sensitivities. In other words, while state companies may be reducing exposure under Western pressure, India’s overall import volumes remain stable because the private sector is filling the gap.​

Ultimately, Trump’s statement may have been politically strategic, aimed at showcasing diplomatic pressure on New Delhi and bolstering his stance against Moscow. Yet, the data clearly shows that India’s pivot away from Russian crude isn’t imminent. Instead, the trend points toward a gradual, calculated adjustment rather than an abrupt policy reversal. For now, Russia continues to fuel India’s energy engine, underscoring a simple truth: in geopolitics, economics almost always wins.