ISLAMABAD/NEW DELHI — Since the nuclear-armed neighbors clashed in 2019, India and Pakistan have significantly enhanced their military capabilities, which experts and former military officials warn increases the risks of escalation, even in a limited conflict. Pakistan has accused India of planning a military strike after New Delhi blamed Islamabad for a deadly attack on Indian tourists in Kashmir last month. In response, India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi has vowed severe retaliation against those responsible for the attack. Pakistan, however, denies involvement and has warned of retaliation if targeted.

In 2019, following a bombing of an Indian military convoy in Kashmir, India launched air strikes inside Pakistan, claiming to have destroyed "terrorist camps." Pakistan responded by shooting down an Indian aircraft in a two-day conflict. The two countries have fought three wars — in 1948, 1965, and 1971 — primarily over Kashmir, which both nations claim. Both India and Pakistan developed nuclear weapons in the 1990s, and Kashmir remains one of the world's most dangerous flashpoints.

Military experts caution that while neither side would likely resort to nuclear weapons unless absolutely necessary, even a limited conflict could rapidly escalate. Such a conflict would likely involve aircraft, missiles, or drones, with both countries being relatively evenly matched in these areas, although India’s significantly larger resources would come into play over time.

Frank O'Donnell, a non-resident fellow at the Stimson Center, believes both nations have become more willing to escalate conflicts since 2019, as they managed to engage in combat without resorting to nuclear weapons. However, the lack of clarity about the triggers for escalation could lead to unintended consequences. Since 2019, both countries have acquired new military equipment, which enhances their conventional strike capabilities. "Each side believes they are better positioned than before," said Muhammad Faisal, a South Asia security researcher. "Only actual combat will reveal the true picture."

India, which felt at a disadvantage in 2019 due to reliance on aging Russian jets, has since added 36 French-made Rafale fighter jets to its fleet, with more on order for its navy. In response, Pakistan has obtained the Chinese-made J-10 fighter jets, similar to the Rafale, with at least 20 of these planes in service since 2022. Both aircraft are equipped with advanced air-to-air missiles, with the Rafale using the Meteor missile and the J-10 utilizing the PL-15 missile, according to a Pakistani security official.