The Indus Water Treaty (IWT) of 1960, brokered by the World Bank, has long stood as a symbol of cooperation between India and Pakistan, aimed at peacefully managing the vital water resources of the Indus River system. While this treaty has served its purpose for decades in ensuring both nations had equitable access to water, the recent Pahalgam attack has brought to light new complexities in this relationship, compelling India to reconsider the sustainability of the treaty under current circumstances.

The growing dependence of Pakistan on the waters of the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab rivers each originating from India has increasingly strained Pakistan's water security. India’s strategic management of water resources through projects like Kishanganga and Baglihar has allowed India greater control over the flow of water into Pakistan. These projects not only allow India to regulate the release of water, but they also provide India with leverage in a region where water is a critical factor for both agricultural and economic stability. Given the current state of geopolitical tensions, such as the aftermath of the Pahalgam attack, India’s right to regulate its water resources has come under sharper focus.

India’s decision to break the Indus Water Treaty has been bolstered by the recognition that the treaty no longer fully reflects the evolving geopolitical and environmental realities of the region. The construction of dams by India has allowed for more effective water management, which is crucial for national security and regional stability. The reduction in water flow to Pakistan, resulting from these developments, has direct implications for Pakistan’s agriculture, which consumes around 90% of the country's water. As India continues to expand its water infrastructure, it is in a stronger position to control water distribution, further ensuring its own water security while minimizing Pakistan's access to these critical resources.

Pakistan’s vulnerabilities exacerbated by its growing population and rapid urbanization have highlighted its inability to invest in necessary water infrastructure, such as the Kalabagh Dam, which could mitigate water scarcity. Meanwhile, India’s superior water management infrastructure has positioned it as the dominant player in the region. The imbalance in infrastructure development, coupled with the increasing threat of water scarcity, has left Pakistan increasingly dependent on India for its water needs, contributing to internal tensions and heightening geopolitical risks. As India seeks to safeguard its national interests, including its water security, the Indus Water Treaty may no longer provide the same guarantees for Pakistan’s future access to water.

Disclaimer: This image is taken from Reuters.