A strong winter storm is forecast to form off the US East Coast this weekend and rapidly intensify into a bomb cyclone, potentially affecting large portions of the Eastern Seaboard, according to CNN. Forecast models reviewed on Wednesday suggest the system will develop off the Carolinas early Saturday and strengthen quickly enough to qualify as a bomb cyclone. However, its exact path and strength remain uncertain, which will determine where snowfall, powerful winds, and coastal impacts occur.

Meteorologists warn that a deviation of even 100 to 200 miles could drastically change outcomes, ranging from a major snowstorm in major East Coast cities to little more than a cold and windy weekend. CNN reported that the Carolinas and southern Virginia currently face the greatest risk of heavy snow and strong winds regardless of the storm’s track. Confidence in forecasts decreases farther north, though southeastern New England may see wind-driven snowfall.

The network outlined three possible scenarios. The most likely outcome, based on recent models, has the storm tracking near the coast, bringing snow and strong winds to parts of the Southeast and coastal sections of the mid-Atlantic and New England, while largely avoiding major Northeast cities along the I-95 corridor, including Washington DC and New York City. In this case, coastal flooding and erosion would be confined mainly to shoreline areas from Cape Hatteras to Cape Cod.

A second, less likely scenario would see the storm staying closer to the coastline, producing heavy snow and intense winds from the eastern Carolinas through the I-95 corridor. CNN noted this would worsen conditions in areas still recovering from last weekend’s storm, which caused power outages and snowfall amid record cold. The third and least probable scenario involves the storm moving quickly out to sea, keeping the worst conditions offshore and limiting impacts even in the Carolinas.

CNN added that while this storm may be more intense and wind-driven than the previous widespread winter system, it is expected to affect a smaller area. Freezing rain and sleet are unlikely due to cold air already in place, but blizzard conditions and damaging coastal waves remain possible. Residents from the Carolinas to the Northeast were advised to stay alert and follow updated forecasts as confidence grows that a significant storm could develop.