US Calls Report on Trump's Deportation Drive 'Fake News', Cites Historic Drop in Illegal Immigration

The US government has rejected an independent report questioning the scale of President Donald Trump’s deportation campaign, dismissing its findings as “fake news” while defending its record on illegal immigration. The dispute has renewed debate over the effectiveness of Trump’s immigration policies, with the administration pointing to a sharp decline in unauthorised border crossings and increased enforcement as evidence of progress. However, immigration researchers have questioned whether the available data supports the government’s claims about the number of undocumented immigrants who have left the country.

The Migration Policy Institute (MPI), a Washington-based research organisation, estimated that US authorities carried out approximately 980,000 deportations between January 20, 2025, and July 31, 2026. The estimate was based on federal records obtained through information requests and included removals and returns handled by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and Customs and Border Protection (CBP).

According to the institute’s analysis, deportations increased under Trump’s second administration but remained below the president’s stated target of one million removals annually. The report estimated that the administration was on course for around 660,000 deportations in the 2026 fiscal year. The report also highlighted a shift in immigration enforcement, with a growing proportion of deportations involving people arrested within the United States rather than those apprehended at the border. The share associated with interior arrests increased from 28% in 2025 to 39% by July 2026, indicating a greater focus on enforcement within immigrant communities.

A key point of disagreement concerns the administration’s claim that more than three million undocumented immigrants have left the country since Trump returned to office. MPI said the overall number of departures was difficult to establish because official records do not comprehensively capture voluntary exits, particularly across land borders.

The institute estimated that total departures could have ranged from 1.3 million to 2.4 million during the period examined, depending on which categories of departures were included. Researchers cautioned that formal deportations, voluntary departures and people turned back at the border represent different categories and should not be treated as interchangeable.

The analysis also raised questions about the administration’s emphasis on removing people with criminal records. MPI estimated that approximately 20% of the 980,000 deportations involved individuals with criminal convictions. Among those deported who had lived in the country for at least two years, around 71% had no criminal conviction.

The findings do not necessarily mean those individuals had lawful immigration status, as immigration violations and criminal convictions are separate legal matters. However, the figures have added to the debate over whether enforcement priorities align with the administration’s stated focus on removing dangerous offenders. The government, meanwhile, has credited its tougher border measures and immigration enforcement policies with reducing unauthorised migration. A decline in border encounters can indicate changes in migration patterns, but it does not independently establish how many undocumented immigrants already living in the country have departed.

The disagreement highlights the difficulty of assessing the full impact of the Trump administration’s immigration crackdown without consistent and comprehensive public data. Publishing clearer figures separating deportations, voluntary departures, border turnarounds and other exits would help researchers and the public evaluate the administration’s claims. As immigration remains a central political issue in the United States, the competing accounts from government officials and independent researchers are likely to keep the effectiveness, scope and consequences of Trump’s deportation campaign in the spotlight.

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