Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma stated on Wednesday that, if current population trends continue, the Muslim population in Assam could reach parity with the Hindu population by 2041. Speaking at a press conference following a cabinet meeting, Sarma referred to Census data to support his claim. He noted that according to the 2011 Census, Muslims made up 34% of Assam’s population, with 31% being descendants of migrants and only 3% classified as indigenous Assamese Muslims.

Sarma emphasized that these projections are based on statistical data and not personal opinion. He said that extrapolating the trend for the years 2021, 2031, and 2041 suggests the state could see a nearly 50:50 ratio between Hindus and Muslims. Citing empirical evidence and past census results, Sarma said that Assam is on a trajectory where the Muslim population could constitute nearly half of the state's total population in the coming years.

As per the 2011 Census, Assam had 3.12 crore people, of which 1.07 crore (34.22%) were Muslims and 1.92 crore (61.47%) were Hindus. The BJP has repeatedly flagged demographic shifts, pointing out that the number of Muslim-majority districts rose from six in 2001 to at least 11 currently, although the 2021 census data has not yet been released.

In 2001, six of Assam’s 23 districts had Muslim majorities, including Dhubri, Goalpara, Barpeta, Nagaon, Karimganj, and Hailakandi. By 2011, with 27 districts, the number increased to nine: Dhubri, Goalpara, Barpeta, Morigaon, Nagaon, Karimganj, Hailakandi, Bongaigaon, and Darrang. On the topic of land encroachment, Sarma said approximately 29 lakh bighas (about 10 lakh acres) of state land are under illegal occupation. He confirmed that eviction drives will continue, though recovering all the land may take more time than his tenure permits.

Earlier, Sarma alleged that much of the encroached land was occupied by “illegal Bangladeshis and doubtful citizens.” He also said that following an eviction operation in Darrang's Gorukhuti area in 2021, his government faced "international pressure" to stop such actions but remained committed to the process.