In mid‑2025, Pakistan resumed the forced deportation of nearly 1.4 million undocumented Afghan refugees, triggering condemnation from humanitarian agencies, rights groups, and the United Nations. This policy marks one of the largest mass expulsions in South Asia in decades, and it comes at a moment when Pakistan itself is grappling with political instability, economic strain, and intensifying security challenges. The move has reshaped Islamabad’s foreign relations, stoked domestic debates, and raised profound questions about the intersection of humanitarian obligations and geopolitical calculations.

Historical Backdrop: A Four‑Decade Exodus

Afghans have sought refuge in Pakistan since the 1979 Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, with subsequent waves following the 1990s civil war, the U.S.-led intervention in 2001, and most recently, the Taliban’s return to power in August 2021. For years, Pakistan hosted the world’s second‑largest refugee population, with UNHCR registering over 3 million Afghans at its peak. However, tensions between local communities and refugees have simmered for years. Pakistan has often accused Afghan refugees of harboring militant elements (especially factions linked to the Tehrik‑i‑Taliban Pakistan, or TTP), engaging in illegal cross‑border trade, and straining limited resources in host provinces, especially Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan.

The 2025 Crackdown: Calculus and Costs

In July 2025, Islamabad expanded its deportation drive, giving Afghan nationals until August 31 to leave voluntarily or face detention and expulsion. This intensified a program first announced in late 2023 but temporarily slowed due to international criticism. Why now? Security pressures – A resurgence of TTP violence in border regions has heightened Pakistan’s perception that militant networks exploit refugee camps as safe havens. Economic fragility – With a fragile IMF bailout and mounting inflation, officials argue that undocumented Afghans consume scarce jobs, subsidies, and services. Geopolitical signaling – By accelerating deportations, Pakistan is sending a message to the Taliban regime: curb TTP activity on Afghan soil or face further diplomatic isolation. Yet, the humanitarian and diplomatic costs are immense.

Humanitarian Fallout

The UNHCR, IOM, and Human Rights Watch have all criticized Pakistan’s mass expulsions as potentially violating the principle of non‑refoulement, the obligation not to return individuals to a country where they face persecution. Border bottlenecks: Thousands have been stranded at the Torkham and Chaman crossings, with inadequate food, shelter, or medical care. Family separations: Afghan families with members born and raised in Pakistan are being split apart. Taliban’s inability to absorb returnees: Afghanistan’s economy, already in freefall with frozen foreign reserves and curtailed aid, cannot sustainably integrate such an influx.

Some NGOs describe the deportations as a humanitarian crisis manufactured by geopolitics.

Regional and International Repercussions

The Taliban government has accused Islamabad of collective punishment, arguing that the refugee issue is being politicized instead of handled with dignity. This worsens bilateral ties already strained by cross‑border militancy. China, a key player in both Pakistan and Afghanistan through CPEC projects and Belt & Road corridors, has quietly urged restraint, fearing instability will jeopardize infrastructure projects across Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan. Washington and European capitals have condemned the deportations but are reluctant to commit significant resettlement quotas, leaving humanitarian agencies with limited leverage.

Domestic Debate Inside Pakistan

Within Pakistan, the refugee debate has split opinion: Supporters of the crackdown argue that undocumented Afghans are an economic and security liability. Local businesses and labor unions complain of “job theft” by Afghan workers. Critics—particularly rights activists and civil society groups—see the expulsions as scapegoating. They note that militancy is rooted in state policy failures, not refugee presence. Some analysts warn that the policy is a short‑term populist measure that could backfire by radicalizing expelled populations and fueling cross‑border resentment for generations.

A Gamble with Uncertain Outcomes

Pakistan’s refugee deportation drive is a high‑risk gamble. In the short run, it may satisfy domestic political demands and signal strength against militancy. But in the long term, it risks: Humanitarian blowback with international donors, Destabilization of Afghanistan, fueling another cycle of displacement, and erosion of Pakistan’s moral standing as a long‑time host nation.

Conclusion

Pakistan’s handling of the Afghan refugee crisis is more than just a migration issue, it is a litmus test of how humanitarian concerns weigh against hard security imperatives in the geopolitics of South Asia. By choosing deportation over integration or negotiated solutions, Islamabad has staked its future on a strategy that may win immediate political points but risks sowing deeper instability across borders. The world now watches to see whether this humanitarian gamble will achieve Pakistan’s security goals—or deepen the very insecurities it seeks to resolve.

Disclaimer: This image is taken from the New York Times.