Pakistans Indus River System Authority (IRSA) has reported a sharp decline in water flow from India via the Indus River system, with Sindh province bearing the brunt. Compared to last year, water releases to Sindh have dropped by nearly 17%, from 1.6 lakh cusecs to 1.33 lakh cusecs. Punjab has also experienced a smaller reduction of about 2.25%.

This shortfall is severely impacting the ongoing sowing season for Kharif crops, as river and reservoir levels remain critically low. The delay in monsoon rains is worsening the situation, leaving farmers across Sindh and Punjab—Pakistans primary agricultural regions—facing growing uncertainty. The crisis follows Indias suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty after the deadly Pahalgam terror attack in April, which claimed 26 lives. The treaty, signed in 1960 and mediated by the World Bank, had long regulated the sharing of six rivers between the two nations. Indias decision to halt both water flows and data sharing on river levels has sparked alarm in Pakistan, particularly over its ability to anticipate and respond to potential flooding.

India is also accelerating plans to fully utilize the western rivers—Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab—through new dam and canal projects, further diminishing water availability downstream in Pakistan. As water inflow declines, Pakistan is now releasing more water than it receives, pushing key reservoirs like Mangla and Tarbela near their dead storage levels, where water can no longer be accessed by gravity. Experts warn that without immediate rainfall, the country may face serious shortages in both irrigation and drinking water supplies.

Islamabad has officially objected to the treatys suspension, calling it a unilateral breach, but New Delhi insists that cooperation hinges on Pakistan addressing concerns over cross-border militancy. Meanwhile, the water crisis threatens to significantly damage agricultural output and food security in Pakistan, especially as an intense heatwave looms.

Disclaimer: This image is taken from PTI.