India's Fighter Jet Shortage Deepens as Production Fails to Keep Pace with Air Force Needs

India’s efforts to modernise its air force are facing growing challenges as delays in aircraft manufacturing, shortages of engines and limited industrial capacity threaten to slow the replacement of ageing fighter jets. The widening gap between the Indian Air Force’s (IAF) requirements and the number of aircraft being delivered has raised concerns about the country’s ability to maintain its combat strength in an increasingly competitive regional security environment.

According to a report by the China-based South China Morning Post, India’s fighter aircraft production programme is struggling to match the pace required to replace retiring aircraft and strengthen the air force. Despite significant investment in domestic aerospace development, turning technological progress into large-scale production remains a major challenge.

The issue received renewed attention when Air Chief Marshal AP Singh completed his final fighter sortie in an indigenously manufactured TEJAS aircraft before his retirement. The flight highlighted India’s progress towards self-reliance in defence manufacturing, but it also brought the country’s fighter squadron shortage into focus. Singh has indicated that the IAF needs to induct approximately two squadrons annually, equivalent to around 36 to 40 aircraft, to move towards its authorised strength of 42 squadrons. The actual requirement could be higher as operational demands evolve.

The TEJAS programme is central to India’s ambition to reduce its dependence on foreign military equipment. Developed domestically, the light combat aircraft represents years of investment in Indian aerospace engineering. However, the TEJAS MK-1A has experienced delays of more than two years, largely because of late deliveries of F404 engines from American manufacturer GE Aerospace. Additional time has also been required to integrate and validate radar, weapons and software systems.

Although engine deliveries have reportedly improved, dependence on a foreign supplier continues to expose the programme to potential disruptions. Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL), the aircraft’s manufacturer, aims to produce 24 TEJAS fighters annually. The IAF has ordered 83 MK-1A aircraft and plans to acquire another 97, while the more advanced TEJAS MK-2 is also under development. Long-term projections suggest that India could eventually operate a fleet of 350 to more than 400 TEJAS aircraft across different variants, provided production targets and development schedules are achieved. Retired Air Marshal Gurcharan Singh Bedi has argued that India has made considerable progress in aircraft manufacturing technology but must now focus on increasing output. Achieving this will require sustained government support, stronger industrial coordination and a reliable supply chain capable of meeting production targets consistently.

The urgency is heightened by the retirement of older aircraft. India withdrew its final MiG-21 fighters in 2025, while six squadrons of Jaguar strike aircraft are scheduled to retire between 2028 and 2031. To keep the remaining Jaguars operational, India has acquired retired British aircraft for spare parts. Additional reductions are expected as the MiG-29 and Mirage 2000 fleets approach retirement during the 2030s. With a typical fighter squadron operating around 18 aircraft, replacing these ageing platforms will require a continuous flow of new fighters rather than occasional additions to the fleet.

The proposed acquisition of 114 Rafale multirole fighters from France could help ease some of the pressure on the IAF. However, negotiations involve several issues, including pricing, technology transfer, domestic manufacturing commitments and the integration of Indian systems. Even if the Rafale procurement advances and HAL achieves its planned TEJAS production rate, replacing retiring aircraft quickly enough will remain difficult. The number of aircraft entering service could continue to fall short of the number being withdrawn for several years.

India is simultaneously working on future combat aircraft programmes intended to strengthen its long-term military capabilities. The first flight of the TEJAS MK-2 is targeted for the June to September 2027 period, with service induction planned for 2030–31. The country also aims to fly a prototype of its fifth-generation Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) by September 2028. Several private-sector companies and industrial consortiums are competing for development and manufacturing roles, while international partnerships are being considered for advanced engine technologies.

Expanding factory capacity may not be enough to solve the problem. Retired Brigadier Sanjay Iyer has identified a shortage of highly specialised professionals, including test pilots, certification experts and systems integration engineers, as another significant obstacle. These specialists are essential for testing aircraft, integrating complex systems and ensuring that new platforms meet operational and safety requirements. Their limited availability across multiple programmes could slow development and certification even when manufacturing facilities are ready.

Domestic engine development is another important priority. The delays affecting the TEJAS MK-1A have demonstrated how reliance on imported propulsion systems can disrupt aircraft production. Developing stronger indigenous capabilities, increasing private-sector participation and allowing capable companies to take on larger aircraft assembly responsibilities could help India build a more resilient aerospace industry. Improved coordination between manufacturers, suppliers and defence agencies would also help reduce delays caused by design changes and component shortages.

India’s long-term fighter modernisation plans will therefore depend on more than placing large procurement orders or announcing new development programmes. The country must ensure that engines, avionics, advanced materials and other essential components are available when needed, while maintaining consistent production schedules and expanding its pool of skilled personnel. Recent efforts to increase TEJAS manufacturing capacity and involve private companies more deeply in future aircraft projects are important steps, but their impact will depend on the speed and reliability of implementation.

India faces a difficult balancing act. It must replace ageing combat aircraft, address the existing squadron shortage and develop more advanced fighters without allowing production delays to undermine operational readiness. The TEJAS programme, the proposed Rafale acquisition and the development of the TEJAS MK-2 and AMCA will all play important roles in shaping the future of Indian military aviation. The decisive factor, however, will be whether India can turn its defence ambitions into a steady supply of combat-ready aircraft capable of meeting the air force’s immediate and long-term needs.

Disclaimer: This image is taken from scmp.