Why India's EV transition differs from West

New Delhi, Aug 16 (AHN) India's transport sector comprises a diverse mix of two-wheelers, auto-rickshaws, buses, trains, and passenger cars, each of which is expected to electrify at a different pace, and thus distinguishes the country's transition to electric mobility from that of Europe and the US, where it is largely driven by cars, according to an article.

As a result, India’s electrification pathway is likely to differ significantly from that of other major economies. As millions of electric vehicles enter Indian roads over the coming decades, demand for critical minerals such as lithium, copper, nickel, and cobalt is expected to rise to unprecedented levels, in some cases even exceeding recent global production benchmarks, the article in The Policy Edge stated.

Given the diversified pattern of vehicle ownership, India’s electrification journey will not place uniform pressure on mineral supply chains over time, it noted.

The first phase will be driven by the rapid electrification of two-wheelers and auto-rickshaws, which dominate everyday mobility. As these markets mature, growth will increasingly come from replacing older vehicles rather than expanding the overall fleet.

Cars, on the other hand, are expected to continue expanding well beyond 2050. As their numbers grow, they will account for an increasing proportion of battery demand and critical mineral consumption. Consequently, India’s electrification pathway will therefore become progressively more material-intensive even as overall vehicle growth begins to stabilise.

Demand for slow chargers could increase six to nine times by 2030, driven largely by two- and three-wheelers, while fast chargers, increasingly driven by passenger cars, are expected to continue expanding well into the following decades. Infrastructure planned today must therefore anticipate tomorrow’s vehicle mix rather than simply respond to current demand, the article points out.

The implications for critical minerals are even more significant. Relative to recent global production benchmarks, lithium demand could more than double, copper demand could approach three times, and nickel demand could approach two-and-a-half times its production benchmark. Cobalt demand could also approach its corresponding global production benchmark despite starting from a much smaller base. These projections illustrate how India’s electrification pathway could become a major driver of global demand for critical minerals, the article stated.

It highlights that this challenge requires policy to evolve beyond promoting EV adoption towards a comprehensive mineral strategy built around three complementary capabilities. The first is securing long-term access to critical minerals through long-term partnerships with resource-rich countries, long-term supply agreements and strategic participation in overseas mineral projects. As global competition for these resources intensifies, reliable access to critical minerals is likely to become an increasingly important source of strategic and economic advantage.

The second is reducing dependence on primary mineral extraction by extending battery life, improving recovery of end-of-life materials and accelerating the adoption of alternative battery technologies, which can moderate long-term demand for scarce minerals while strengthening resource efficiency, the article observes.

While the third is building stronger domestic capabilities across the mineral value chain. Expanding refining and processing capacity alongside advanced battery manufacturing would allow India to capture more value within the clean energy economy while strengthening the resilience of its industrial ecosystem, the article added.