New Delhi, Jan 12 (AHN) All eyes are on Bangladesh as elections are scheduled to be held in February. Many are hoping that stability would return to the country and the never-ending violence would come to an end.

Former officer with the Research and Analysis Wing (R&AW), Amar Bhushan, who has done several stints in Bangladesh, discusses the ongoing situation in the country and also its future. Bhushan, during one of his stints, was the first to flag the issue of illegal immigration and how it was a planned exercise by the ISI and Jamaat-e-Islami to stress the bordering Indian states.

Bhushan says that elections are needed, but the country would take at least 10 years to recover from the mess that it is in. The Bangladeshi Nationalist Party (BNP) looks most certain to win, he says, while adding that even Tarique Rahman would find it hard in the first couple of years to manage the country.

India has been reaching out to the BNP leadership ever since the ouster of Sheikh Hasina. New Delhi hopes that ties will hit a reset once the elections are held. On how India should be dealing with Bangladesh in a post-Hasina era, Amar Bhushan says that India must quietly support the BNP leadership. India should not put in too much investment and dole out financial help immediately. The business must be done transactionally. Time is the essence here, and the current approach by India is right, he says.

He also adds that the approach must be low-key and not aggressive. Since Hasina’s exit and Muhammad Yunus's appointment as the caretaker of the interim government, Bangladesh has become a mess. Pakistan’s ISI, along with the Jamaat have allowed the radicals to run amok and create a ruckus in the country. Yunus, too, has backed this agenda, while remaining a mute spectator to the happenings in the country.

Intelligence Bureau officials say that there is an attempt by the ISI to make sure that every Bangladeshi becomes anti-India. Amar Bhushan says that this plan would fail as a majority do not like the Pakistanis. They would have never fought for independence if they wanted the Pakistanis, he adds. Even today, if there is a vote for or against Pakistan, it would be an against vote, the former R&AW official says.

The Bangladeshis have not forgotten the Liberation Movement, and that spirit will always remain. The country fought as a whole for its freedom from the Pakistanis, and that spirit the ISI or Jamaat can never break, Bhushan adds.

Certain opinion polls have suggested that the Jamaat is closing in on the BNP ahead of the polls. If at all the Jamaat comes to power, India would find itself in a tricky position when it comes to diplomatic ties. Bhushan says it is very doubtful if the Jamaat will win the elections. During the Liberation Movement, Jamaat acted as the butchers and never supported the people in their cause, he says. If at all the Jamaat comes to power, there would only be chaos, he adds.

On being asked if India can have diplomatic relations with the Jamaat if it wins the elections, Bhushan says that we can. If we could crack ties with the Taliban, then why not the Jamaat, he asks. However, India will need to keep the Jamaat under pressure, he says. The people will not vote for them since they are not radicals like the Jamaat, he says. The Bangladeshis value their freedom, and this is why they won’t vote for the ISI-backed Jamaat, he adds.

Bhushan points out that the Bangladeshi army could have easily sorted out the problem when it came to the Jamaat and ISI. However, the army is divided, and this is why Yunus, the Jamaat, and the ISI are having a field day, he says.

“According to my assessment, the Jamaat would end up getting just 20-25 seats. The people do not want the imposition of the Sharia law, which the Jamaat would try to do,” Bhushan adds.

On the question of illegal immigration, Amar Bhushan says that it will continue irrespective of which party is in power. India would need to raise a wall and enhance technical surveillance to keep this problem under check. He also adds that foreign players will continue to interfere in Bangladesh, so that India bears the indirect cost.