Crisil said India’s CAD could reach 2% of GDP in FY27 if crude oil stays at $82–87 per barrel. In its base case, it sees the deficit at 1.5% of GDP, assuming oil at $75–80 and export gains from US tariff relief. It expects a strong services surplus to limit the impact. The report also flagged risks from West Asia tensions and weak global demand, noting India’s exports fell 7.4% in March, led by a sharp drop in gems and jewellery shipments.

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