The focus of global intelligence has shifted. No longer is Tehran the primary concern—now, Rawalpindi is under the spotlight. A recent U.S. intelligence report has sparked serious alarm: Pakistan is allegedly developing an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) that could potentially carry nuclear warheads capable of reaching mainland America. Until now, Iran's nuclear ambitions dominated the conversation, but this new revelation places Pakistan’s nuclear developments squarely in the global limelight.

This report, published in Foreign Affairs, claims that Pakistan’s missile program gained momentum following India’s Operation Sindoor, which unsettled Pakistan’s military leadership. With assistance from China, Pakistan is said to be acquiring the necessary components and expertise to advance its missile technology, pushing beyond its existing missile capabilities.

What This Means for America

Washington is closely monitoring the situation. Senior U.S. officials have indicated that if Pakistan successfully develops ICBM capabilities, it will be categorized as a nuclear threat on par with North Korea, China, and Russia. There will be no middle ground. The United States has already responded by imposing sanctions, freezing assets, and blocking trade with Pakistan’s National Development Complex and its primary missile contractors. These actions followed evidence that Pakistan was sourcing sensitive technology from foreign markets.

For years, Pakistan has claimed its nuclear weapons were solely for deterrence against India, with no plans to develop ICBMs or pursue aggressive military strategies. However, this new intelligence contradicts that narrative. With the Shahin-III missile already reaching over 2,700 kilometers, experts believe Pakistan is working to extend its missile capabilities far beyond the South Asian region.

Pakistan's Strategy

Pakistan’s potential development of a missile capable of striking the United States would significantly alter the balance of power. Such a weapon could serve as a shield, limiting U.S. involvement in any future India-Pakistan conflict. This quiet but clear strategy indicates that Pakistan is preparing for a more global reach with its nuclear capabilities.

India’s “We Told You So” Moment

India has long raised alarms about Pakistan’s nuclear program, emphasizing that the country cannot be trusted with such weapons. Concerns about the fragility of Pakistan’s command chain, the involvement of terrorist groups, and rogue military elements have been central to India’s worries. After recent airstrikes inside Pakistan, India successfully neutralized nine terror camps and targeted several airbases, to which Pakistan responded by launching a Fateh-II hypersonic missile—only for India to shoot it down.

Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh and other top leaders have urged the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to closely monitor Pakistan’s nuclear stockpiles. India’s concerns are not hypothetical—they are urgent. A single nuclear weapon in the wrong hands could have catastrophic consequences.

While global attention was diverted by discussions over Iran’s nuclear ambitions, Pakistan has been quietly advancing its missile capabilities. The real fear is not just the missile itself, but the broader context in which it exists—terror cells, sleeper agents, and political instability. If these missiles fall into the wrong hands, no nation or continent would be safe.

Global Implications

Estimates suggest that Pakistan currently possesses around 170 nuclear warheads. As a non-signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, Pakistan has a history of nuclear proliferation, further complicating the situation. This makes the prospect of Pakistan’s ICBM development even more concerning.

The threat of an ICBM from Pakistan is no longer a whispered concern—it is a documented risk. The United States now faces a critical choice: ignore the threat and risk a future crisis, or take action. Meanwhile, India continues to emphasize that Pakistan’s nuclear weapons are not just a South Asian issue—they could soon become a global problem.